الرافعة المالية في خروج بيتكوين: السوق الفوري يهيمن، واحذر من مخاطر المضاربة المفرطة

【Block Rhythm】Bitcoin market has recently shown obvious structural transformation. After escaping the deleveraging phase in December, the market has gradually entered a moderate expansion period — this is quite a positive signal. The positive turn of the Z-Score indicator has fully confirmed the recovery of market sentiment, but interestingly, the indicator divergence tells us a deeper fact: this rally is mainly driven by spot market strength, not leveraged funds.

This situation is actually quite healthy. Why? Because risk has dropped significantly. Think about it — without large amounts of leveraged capital following the trend, the possibility of cascading liquidations is naturally much lower. The key driving factor for price stability at this level is actually simple — the growth rate of open interest is very restrained, without that kind of crazy explosive growth, which is the foundation for the market to sustain.

But we also need to see the risk points clearly. If the divergence indicator suddenly reverses to the positive zone without price support, that’s dangerous. This usually means speculative positions have accumulated too much, and once adjustment comes, it will be brutal.