On the morning of July 6 Beijing time, at the start of the Asia-Pacific session, US stock index futures surged across the board. Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 1.45%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%, and Dow futures edged up 0.04%. Precious metals also strengthened in tandem, with spot silver up 1.2% to $63.11 per ounce and spot gold rising 0.37% to $4,189.54 per ounce.
At the same time, the crypto market has shown clear signs of recovery over the past week. Bitcoin held steady above $63,000, Ethereum tested the $1,800 level, and the total cryptocurrency market cap rebounded to around $2.249 trillion. The strong rebound in US stock futures, coupled with the rally in crypto assets, is sending a clear signal to the market: a return of risk appetite is creating a resonance across asset classes.
What Is Driving the Broad Rally in US Stock Futures?
US equities were closed last Friday for the Independence Day holiday, but the futures market had already started to rebound during the break. The further surge on the morning of July 6 essentially reflects the concentrated release of optimism that had built up over the holiday period as Asia-Pacific markets opened.
Looking at the direct triggers, June’s US nonfarm payroll data came in weaker than expected, significantly easing concerns about near-term monetary tightening. The cooling labor market gives the Federal Reserve more policy space to keep rates unchanged. After attending the ECB’s Sintra Forum, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter stated clearly that the Fed will not raise rates this year, and a July hike is virtually off the table.
Goldman Sachs’ trading desk noted in its latest report that it has detected early "buy-the-dip" signals in US momentum stocks, providing a tactical rebound foundation for the momentum factor. Data shows that since its peak, the momentum factor has fallen 24%—the largest pullback since Q1 2023 and well above the historical average drawdown of about 12%. Goldman attributes this amplified decline mainly to structural factors such as lower liquidity and sluggish summer trading, rather than a fundamental shift in underlying trends.
Additionally, falling international oil prices have eased concerns about rising inflation. As of 7:20 a.m. Beijing time, WTI crude futures were down 0.52% at $68.33 per barrel, and Brent crude futures fell 0.61% to $71.68 per barrel. OPEC+ has agreed to raise production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day in August, further capping oil price upside. Lower oil prices have directly reduced market inflation expectations and term premiums, providing extra valuation support for risk assets.
Why Is Nasdaq Futures Outperforming the Other Major Index Futures?
Nasdaq futures’ 1.45% gain far outpaced the S&P 500’s 0.5% and the Dow’s 0.04%, and this divergence itself reveals significant market information.
Tech stocks’ high beta makes them the most direct beneficiaries when risk appetite returns. As macro uncertainty declines and policy paths become clearer, capital flows first into the more resilient tech sector. Last week, chip stocks experienced sharp swings—the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged over 6% on Wednesday and another 5.45% on Thursday—but market confidence in the core AI narrative remains fundamentally intact.
Goldman Sachs specifically pointed out that the market’s skepticism about Meta’s return on capital expenditure as it pivots to cloud business is similar to previous episodes of sentiment shocks, but there have not yet been structural changes to the AI narrative significant enough to drive a deeper correction. Investors are reassessing valuations across the AI supply chain, but optimism toward software and platform companies persists.
Another notable clue is the strong performance of South Korean chip giants. SK Hynix surged 10.88%, and Samsung Electronics jumped 8.22%. SK Hynix is expected to officially list on the Nasdaq this week, an event that could further boost sentiment in the semiconductor and memory sectors.
Why Are Crypto Markets Rallying in Tandem with US Stock Futures?
Crypto assets have shown a high degree of correlation with US equities in this cycle. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin rose 7.9% and Ethereum surged 15.1%, with the latter’s gains clearly outpacing the former. The strength of these high-volatility assets is often seen as a leading indicator of risk appetite.
Bitcoin’s correlation with US equities—especially the Nasdaq—has recently reached elevated levels. This high correlation means that crypto assets no longer serve as "safe-haven assets" in the face of macro risks, but rather behave more like high-volatility risk assets. When investors switch to "risk-on" mode, capital flows simultaneously into tech stocks and crypto assets, driving both higher; in "risk-off" mode, capital exits both asset classes indiscriminately.
Last week’s fund flows further confirm this logic. While US equities were closed for the holiday, both gold and cryptocurrencies rallied—spot gold rebounded 2.16% for the week to $4,176.94 per ounce, and spot silver rose 5.52%—showing that capital actively sought risk exposure even as traditional markets paused. At present, Bitcoin is trading near $63,600, Ethereum at $1,784.58, and total crypto market cap has climbed 1% in 24 hours to $2.249 trillion.
However, this linkage also means crypto assets face dual risks: they are driven both by their own on-chain narratives and by macro policy and US equity performance. When macro conditions shift, crypto assets often see sharper pullbacks than traditional risk assets.
What Does the Early Rebound in Gold and Crypto Signal?
One noteworthy phenomenon is that gold and crypto assets rebounded ahead of the further surge in US stock futures. During the US market holiday, Nasdaq 100 futures defied the trend and climbed over 1%, while gold ended a four-week losing streak with a weekly rebound.
This "leading indicator" effect sends at least three signals.
First, capital is seeking high-elasticity outlets. With the US spot equity market closed, crypto assets—trading 24/7—became the primary channel for expressing risk appetite. Crypto’s price discovery function becomes especially prominent outside US trading hours.
Second, geopolitical risk premiums are receding. Weekend talks between Russia and Ukraine did not ease tensions, with both sides escalating attacks. However, Middle East risk premiums have already retreated, with Brent crude falling 0.66% for the week to $72.12 per barrel, marking four straight weeks of declines—the longest streak in nearly two years. Geopolitical pressures on risk assets are marginally easing.
Third, the market is pricing in greater clarity on the Fed’s policy path. Gold, as a traditional inflation hedge and safe-haven asset, often rebounds ahead of a broader risk asset recovery. Gold’s approach to the $4,200 per ounce mark suggests the market is already digesting potential policy signals from this week’s Fed meeting minutes.
What Will Determine the Sustainability of This Risk-On Rally?
The rebound in US stock futures and the concurrent crypto rally both reflect pricing around the same macro narrative: the Fed’s rate hike cycle is over, and a rate-cut cycle may begin within the year.
Citi expects the Fed to hold rates steady in July and September, with the first 25-basis-point cut at the October 28 meeting and another cut in December. Morgan Stanley maintains its baseline forecast of no rate hikes for the year. Both agree: there’s no near-term risk of further hikes.
But the sustainability of the rally hinges on three key variables.
The first variable is this Wednesday’s Fed meeting minutes. This will be the first set of minutes under new chair Waller. The June dot plot showed half the committee leaning toward a hike this year. The key market question: Will the minutes contain language more hawkish than expected? If so, high-volatility assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum could be the first to signal a pullback.
The second variable is the quality of US Q2 earnings reports. This week, Fast Retailing, PepsiCo, and Delta Air Lines will kick off the earnings season. Disappointing corporate earnings could interrupt the current recovery in risk appetite.
The third variable is the liquidity environment. Goldman Sachs warns that momentum factor positioning remains crowded, and if deleveraging continues, the potential maximum drawdown could be twice the current decline. The market is in the early stages of momentum strategy unwinding, and the next phase will depend on the interplay between liquidity and sentiment recovery.
How Is the Correlation Between Crypto and US Stocks Changing?
The crypto-equity linkage is not static. Structurally, the relationship is evolving from "tight coupling" to "dynamic differentiation."
In the short term, macro factors remain the dominant drivers for both markets. Interest rate expectations, employment data, and inflation trends all impact crypto and US equities in highly similar ways. As long as the Fed’s policy path remains unclear, this high correlation is likely to persist.
But in the medium term, the drivers are diverging. US equities are increasingly driven by corporate earnings and the realization of AI industry trends, while crypto assets are more influenced by on-chain narratives, ecosystem development, and capital flows. This means we could see scenarios where "US stocks fluctuate while crypto trends independently."
Another structural shift is worth noting: crypto trading infrastructure is now supporting more traditional asset trading. As of June 1, 2026, Gate has officially launched real US stock trading services, allowing users to trade major US stocks and ETFs directly with USDT on the platform. This trend means crypto users have access to more diversified asset allocation tools, and crypto platform fund flows will increasingly be influenced by US equity market performance.
From a broader perspective, crypto is shifting from "narrative-driven speculation" to "tracking US stocks." The introduction of US stock contracts and tokenized equities by exchanges essentially binds the crypto market more tightly to traditional financial markets. This linkage brings the convenience of cross-asset allocation, but also exposes crypto more directly to macro volatility.
What Are the Key Risk Events for Markets This Week?
This week is packed with macro events that could recalibrate market direction.
Tuesday: SpaceX will be added to the Nasdaq 100 Index, setting a record for the fastest inclusion from IPO to index. Passive funds tracking the index will be forced to buy. On the same day, the US Trade Representative’s office will hold hearings on imposing tariffs on 60 economies. The annual Sun Valley conference also kicks off. OpenAI has scheduled the release of GPT-5.6 to coincide with the expiration of the Claude Fable 5 quota plan—competition among AI models now extends to release timelines themselves.
Wednesday: The Fed will release minutes from its June meeting—the first under Chair Waller. Markets will focus on whether the language is more hawkish than expected. Two voting members will also speak publicly that day.
Around Friday: SK Hynix’s US ADR is expected to list, with an offering size exceeding 45 trillion KRW—evoking memories of Alibaba’s record-breaking US IPO.
Bulls have a straightforward case: futures rallied during the holiday, gold and crypto surged in tandem, and risk appetite has not been derailed by geopolitical or tariff noise. Bears have clear concerns as well: the combination of hawkish Fed minutes, tariff hearings, and SpaceX’s Nasdaq inclusion all in the same week means a misstep in any of these areas could quickly deflate the optimism built up during the holiday.
Conclusion
The broad rally in US stock index futures on July 6—Nasdaq futures up 1.45%, S&P 500 up 0.5%, and Dow up 0.04%—was driven by weaker-than-expected jobs data easing tightening fears, falling oil prices suppressing inflation expectations, and a release of pent-up optimism from the holiday. Crypto markets rallied in tandem, with Bitcoin holding above $63,000, Ethereum testing $1,800, and total market cap rebounding to $2.249 trillion, further confirming the cross-asset resonance of risk appetite.
However, the sustainability of this rally faces a test from several macro events this week—including the tone of the Fed’s meeting minutes, the quality of US Q2 earnings, and the evolving liquidity environment—all of which will determine how far this "macro resonance" can go. The correlation between crypto and US equities is shifting from short-term high synchronization to medium-term dynamic differentiation, with both sharing macro pricing factors but also developing independent narratives.
FAQ
Q1: Why did Nasdaq futures outperform S&P 500 and Dow futures by such a wide margin?
Nasdaq futures’ strong gains reflect the high-beta nature of tech stocks—they are the first to attract capital when risk appetite returns. In addition, market confidence in the core AI narrative remains fundamentally intact, and the strong performance of chip stocks like SK Hynix has provided extra support for the tech sector.
Q2: Is the simultaneous rally in crypto and US stock futures a coincidence or a trend?
The core driver of both markets’ rally is shared macro pricing factors—Fed policy direction, interest rate expectations, and risk appetite. Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq has recently reached new highs, indicating that crypto assets are currently operating more as high-volatility risk assets rather than independent safe havens.
Q3: What is the most important macro event this week?
On Wednesday (July 8), the Fed will release the minutes from its June meeting—the first under Chair Waller. The key market focus will be whether the language is more hawkish than expected. Other notable events include SpaceX joining the Nasdaq 100, tariff hearings, and the SK Hynix ADR listing.
Q4: What does the rebound in US stock futures mean for crypto investors?
A rebound in US stock futures is usually a leading signal of rising risk appetite, which is short-term positive for crypto assets. However, crypto investors should also watch the quality of US Q2 earnings and the tone of the Fed’s meeting minutes—any disappointment could trigger a chain reaction of pullbacks.
Q5: How will the correlation between crypto and US equities evolve in the future?
In the short term, macro factors will continue to drive synchronized moves between the two markets. In the medium term, their drivers are diverging—US equities are increasingly earnings-driven, while crypto is more influenced by on-chain narratives—so we may see scenarios where "US stocks fluctuate while crypto trends independently." Investors should assess both macro indicators and on-chain data, and avoid relying solely on historical correlations.
