Pemberontakan Diam-Diam The Fed: Apa Makna Sebenarnya dari Pidato Powell di Jackson Hole bagi Pasar

Here’s what just happened inside the Federal Reserve, and why crypto traders should care.

For the first time in over three decades, the Fed’s internal consensus is cracking. Last week’s FOMC minutes dropped a bombshell: two of twelve governors publicly voted for a rate cut in July—Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller—while Powell and the rest held the line at 4.25%-4.5%. This isn’t just procedural noise. It’s the biggest dissent since the early 1990s.

The Split Explained

Bowman’s argument was straightforward: tariffs + high borrowing costs = economic slowdown. Cut rates gradually, protect jobs, keep inflation in check. Waller echoed similar concerns about growth headwinds. The majority countered: inflation still sticky, labor market still holding up, rates stay put.

But here’s the thing—two votes breaking ranks signals something deeper. Powell’s iron grip on consensus is loosening. And markets know it.

Why Traders Are Freaking Out

Panic selling has already kicked in. Why? Policy uncertainty. When the Fed itself doesn’t know which direction it’s heading, neither do traders. Some are betting Powell caves to Trump pressure before his 2026 exit. Others fear the opposite—hawkish hold leads to recession.

Crypto cares because inflationary uncertainty = potential rally fuel. During the 2021-2022 rate hike cycle, BTC crashed. If the Fed reverses course due to internal pressure, liquidity floods back in.

The Powell Exit Watch

Trump’s been openly hostile toward Powell, hinting at legal challenges. Succession candidates include Bullard (independent), Waller (growth-focused), and Trump-aligned picks like Hassett and Warsh. Whoever takes the helm could fundamentally reshape Fed policy.

August 22: The Real Test

Powell speaks at Jackson Hole in days. This speech matters more than usual—it either signals hawkish hold or hints at flexibility. Markets will read between every line.

The bottom line: Fed dissent + leadership transition + Trump pressure = highest policy uncertainty in years. Expect volatility across equities, bonds, and crypto.