TradFi Market View | 3/25

US Stocks: High-level consolidation, awaiting catalysts
Following yesterday's rebound, US stocks are consolidating at higher levels today. The market has digested US-Iran easing expectations, with a lack of new upside catalysts in the short term. This week, focus on core PCE data (the Fed's most watched inflation indicator). If data exceeds expectations, rate cut expectations may be delayed again, weighing on US stocks.

Gold: Stabilizing after pullback
Safe-haven premium has largely been unwound, with gold finding support around $2,900. The medium to long-term logic (central bank gold purchases + de-dollarization) remains unchanged, and pullbacks present allocation opportunities. If US-Iran negotiations hit obstacles, gold will rebound rapidly.

Oil: Bottom fishing at lower levels
Geopolitical easing pressures oil prices, but OPEC+ production cut floor remains intact. WTI has strong support in the $75-78 range, with limited room for further sharp declines. Watch EIA crude inventory data this week.

US Dollar: Narrow range fluctuation
Market awaits PCE guidance, with the dollar index consolidating in the 103-104 range. Direction depends on inflation data—if PCE is elevated, dollar strengthens; if in line with expectations, dollar weakens.

Bond Market: Stable
10-year Treasury yield maintains 4.2-4.3% range, with large market divergence on rate cut path, as bond market enters wait-and-see mode.

Today's key judgment:

Market enters "data-driven" phase, with core PCE this week being the biggest variable. Before data release, various assets will mainly consolidate with unclear direction. Light positioning and wait-and-see is the optimal strategy.

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