移動平均線入門：すべての暗号通貨トレーダーが習得すべき唯一の指標

BTC is up 3.48% to $103,989—and moving averages probably had something to do with it. Let me break down the MA system in plain language.

What is MA?

Moving average = the average closing price over a set number of days. Simple math, massive edge. It smooths out price noise and shows you the actual trend instead of the daily chaos.

Formula: MA = (Close₁ + Close₂ + … + Closeₙ) / n

The Three Timeframes You Need to Know

• Short-term: MA5, MA10 (quick reactions, lots of whipsaws)
• Mid-term: MA30, MA60 (the sweet spot for swing traders)
• Long-term: MA100, MA200 (if price is below MA200, you’re in a bear market, period)

Granville’s 8 Rules (The Cheat Code)

Buy signals:

1. Price breaks MA from below + MA starts rising = GO LONG
2. Price dips below MA but bounces back while MA keeps climbing = still bullish
3. Price stays above MA, dips don’t break it = hold
4. Price crashes below MA then bounces = short-term buy opportunity

Sell signals: 5. MA flips from up to flat/down + price breaks below = TIME TO EXIT 6. Price spike above MA but can’t hold + MA still falling = still bearish 7. Price stays below MA, rallies don’t break it = stay short 8. Price pumps above MA then pulls back = short-term short opportunity

The Two Patterns That Matter

Golden Cross (Bullish): MA5 crosses above MA30/MA60 = price usually keeps climbing

Death Cross (Bearish): MA5 crosses below MA30/MA60 = watch out for the dump

Long Arrangement: All MAs stacked from top to bottom, sloping up-right = monster uptrend incoming

Short Arrangement: All MAs stacked from bottom to top, sloping down-right = capitulation time

Key Takeaways

• MA tracks trends but LAGS—it’s not a leading indicator, it’s a confirmation tool
• Combine it with support/resistance and K-line patterns or you’ll get rekt
• The longer the MA, the stronger the signal (MA200 break hits different than MA5)
• Use it to find support/resistance zones where funds typically pile in/out

Bonus: This same system worked in stocks for decades. Crypto is just faster. Same rules, 10x the volatility. Good luck out there.