バフェットは静かに市場調整に備えているのか？彼の最新の動きが示すもの

Warren Buffett rarely gives direct market predictions. But if you know how to read between the lines, his portfolio actions are screaming a pretty clear message right now.

Let’s break down three things happening at Berkshire Hathaway that deserve your attention:

The Selling Spree Nobody’s Talking About

For 12 straight quarters, Buffett has been dumping stocks. In Q3 2025 alone, Berkshire sold $12.5 billion in equities while only buying $6.4 billion back. Three years of net selling? That’s not random. That’s positioning.

Remember his famous quote: “Be fearful when others are greedy, greedy when others are fearful.” Well, the Buffett Indicator—a metric he literally named himself—sits at roughly 221% right now. Back in 2001, he warned that ratios approaching 200% meant investors were “playing with fire.”

The math is simple: he thinks the market is overheating.

$382 Billion in Cold Cash—A Record Nobody’s Seen Before

This is the kicker. Berkshire’s cash pile (including Treasury holdings) just hit $382 billion as of late September 2025. That’s not just a Berkshire record. That’s the largest cash position any U.S. public company has ever held.

Buffett has always said he’d rather own good businesses than hoard cash. Yet here he is, sitting on nearly half a trillion dollars. Why? Because he’s waiting for better entry points. When valuations become attractive again, he’ll have dry powder ready to deploy.

The Buyback Pause That Matters

Buffett’s favorite stock to buy has always been Berkshire itself. No board approval needed. He can repurchase shares whenever he wants—as long as cash stays above $30 billion.

That $30 billion threshold is basically irrelevant now. But he hasn’t bought back a single Berkshire share in five quarters. Not one.

Yes, share prices are higher. Yes, there’s a 1% buyback tax now. But those are just excuses if valuations were attractive. The real reason? He doesn’t think even his own company’s stock is a bargain at current levels.

What This Actually Means

Buffett isn’t panic-selling. Berkshire still owns roughly $314 billion in equities. He’s not abandoning stocks—he’s being selective. Only buying what meets his strict criteria. Holding massive cash for eventual deployment.

That’s the playbook investors should consider copying:

• Build cash reserves to buy dips
• Exit positions where conviction is low
• Stay disciplined—only deploy when valuations align with your criteria

Regardless of what the market does next, that’s a solid approach.