#比特币宏观表现 Q4 fell more than 22%, so I'm going to be straight with you. This bounce back to 90k certainly caught a lot of people's attention, but if you dig into the logic behind it, you'll realize this isn't exactly good news.
Technical correction and genuine capital inflow are two different things. The initial decline was too severe, and the bounce is just relieving oversold pressure. This type of rebound is often the most deceptive. Look at where we are now—still 30% below the start of the year. What does that tell you? It means there's been zero genuine new capital confidence in this market all year.
Seasonal factors deserve special attention here. In previous years, Q4 was Bitcoin's active period, but in years with tight liquidity, this "pattern" becomes a trap. The market keeps giving back gains on US sessions, indicating plenty of people are still underwater from higher prices, and they're desperate to exit on any bounce. In this environment, short-term volatility risk is substantial.
My advice: don't get blinded by this rebound. Real trend reversals require volume confirmation and genuine macro improvement, not just technical charts playing with themselves. Until we confirm a bottom signal, caution is warranted. Living long beats living fast, every single time.
#比特币宏观表现 Q4 fell more than 22%, so I'm going to be straight with you. This bounce back to 90k certainly caught a lot of people's attention, but if you dig into the logic behind it, you'll realize this isn't exactly good news.
Technical correction and genuine capital inflow are two different things. The initial decline was too severe, and the bounce is just relieving oversold pressure. This type of rebound is often the most deceptive. Look at where we are now—still 30% below the start of the year. What does that tell you? It means there's been zero genuine new capital confidence in this market all year.
Seasonal factors deserve special attention here. In previous years, Q4 was Bitcoin's active period, but in years with tight liquidity, this "pattern" becomes a trap. The market keeps giving back gains on US sessions, indicating plenty of people are still underwater from higher prices, and they're desperate to exit on any bounce. In this environment, short-term volatility risk is substantial.
My advice: don't get blinded by this rebound. Real trend reversals require volume confirmation and genuine macro improvement, not just technical charts playing with themselves. Until we confirm a bottom signal, caution is warranted. Living long beats living fast, every single time.