Recently, many people have been asking: now that Bitcoin has rebounded from 80,000 to its current level, hasn't it already topped out? Is there still room for going long? Should we bottom-fish and go short?
My assessment is straightforward: this rebound is essentially "your last chance to get out."
**Why I say this? Comparing with the historical trend from 2022**
I carefully compared the market conditions from three years ago, and to be honest — the structure is repeating exactly. What was the rhythm back then? Two bottoms gradually rising higher, with the second rebound slightly higher than the first, making everyone think "it's about to reverse," and then what? It crashed directly. The K-line pattern is this way, and the MACD momentum rhythm is strikingly consistent.
This type of movement is essentially not a bullish signal at all, but a textbook-level "downtrend continuation" — the rebound is merely accumulating energy for a more severe decline.
**Next direction and trading strategy**
My view on this market: the BTC rebound is nearly exhausted, ETH will likely surge to the 3400-3500 range, after which we'll enter a new round of decline.
Trading recommendations are simple — if you hold long positions, exit quickly, don't wait. You don't necessarily have to reverse to short, but at minimum lock in your profits first. If you genuinely want to short, 2-3x leverage is sufficient; hold it as a medium-to-long-term position and give yourself adequate margin for error.
**Time window**
The actual downtrend initiation window is likely around one to two weeks before and after the interest rate decision meeting.
Recently, many people have been asking: now that Bitcoin has rebounded from 80,000 to its current level, hasn't it already topped out? Is there still room for going long? Should we bottom-fish and go short?
My assessment is straightforward: this rebound is essentially "your last chance to get out."
**Why I say this? Comparing with the historical trend from 2022**
I carefully compared the market conditions from three years ago, and to be honest — the structure is repeating exactly. What was the rhythm back then? Two bottoms gradually rising higher, with the second rebound slightly higher than the first, making everyone think "it's about to reverse," and then what? It crashed directly. The K-line pattern is this way, and the MACD momentum rhythm is strikingly consistent.
This type of movement is essentially not a bullish signal at all, but a textbook-level "downtrend continuation" — the rebound is merely accumulating energy for a more severe decline.
**Next direction and trading strategy**
My view on this market: the BTC rebound is nearly exhausted, ETH will likely surge to the 3400-3500 range, after which we'll enter a new round of decline.
Trading recommendations are simple — if you hold long positions, exit quickly, don't wait. You don't necessarily have to reverse to short, but at minimum lock in your profits first. If you genuinely want to short, 2-3x leverage is sufficient; hold it as a medium-to-long-term position and give yourself adequate margin for error.
**Time window**
The actual downtrend initiation window is likely around one to two weeks before and after the interest rate decision meeting.