最近行情在反复震荡,不少之前提前减仓的交易者都在问同一个问题:大盘是不是已经跌到位了,现在能不能重新买入,去等下一波行情的到来?



看当前的盘面表现,答案其实还是否定的。这段时间市场并没有出现明确的止跌信号,虽然情绪有所缓解,但还远没到形成趋势反转的程度。在这种摇摇晃晃的区间里,投资者很容易在不该进场的位置贸然入场,反而被反复的震荡所伤害。

所以与其急着抄底,不如先把行情的真实状态看明白,等一个更确定的信号出现再说。

从ビットコインの日足チャートを見ると、最近の3本のK線はクラシックな「黄昏之星」パターンを描いており、同時に指標が下向きに転じ、重要なサポートラインを放量で割り込んでいます。テクニカル分析の言葉で言えば、この組み合わせは通常、上方の圧力増加やトレンドの弱まりを示唆します。このような構造に直面して、大きなV字反転の確率はもともと高くありません。言い換えれば、市場はまだ全ての下落過程を終えていない可能性があり、今後も下方のサポートを再度テストする可能性があります。

より大きな視点から見ると、この下落は必ずしもテクニカル面だけの問題ではありません。先週の関税政策に関する投票が市場の感情変化の重要なきっかけとなりました。投票結果が現行政策に不利な場合、市場のリスク回避の感情はさらに強まります。これが、純粋なテクニカルリバウンドの過程でも、市場がまだしっかりと立ち直れなかった理由を説明しています。
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OldLeekMastervip
· 23時間前
Evening Star(黄昏之星) has already appeared, and you still want to buy the dip? That's just asking for trouble. Wait, the policy side hasn't landed clearly yet, why move? Testing support again? Then I'll just keep watching. Honestly, rather than getting whipsawed back and forth, better to wait patiently for a signal. Don't rush, I feel there's still potential. This wave really isn't that simple, there's still the tariff situation hanging over us. Those who like the K-line patterns, give a nod, but I still need to wait.
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GasFeeVictimvip
· 01-10 15:21
Evening star pattern is already formed and you still want to buy the dip? Aren't you afraid of getting your hand smashed haha Still need to wait for policies to land, buying now is just taking over the bag I'm just watching, anyway I have no coins left Another "bottom," and it keeps falling instead, seen it too many times Don't mess around before the tariff vote results, it's just too uncertain Wait for a confirmed signal, this kind of oscillation range is killing without blinking Evening star plus volume breaking down means there's still room to fall I'm already completely underwater, if I enter again I'm done for Without a stop-fall signal, just sit tight and watch, don't get killed by repeated oscillations Need to watch the policy side, technical rebounds are more likely to get backfired
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HalfPositionRunnervip
· 01-09 22:47
Evening Star has formed, and you still want to buy the dip? You'll definitely get caught sooner or later. It's policy again causing trouble, what's the point of a technical bounce anyway. Just wait, rushing won't make you money anyway. No one can say for sure if it hasn't hit bottom yet, I'll just watch for now. Support levels are broken, and you still want to enter? Aren't you asking for trouble?
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BearMarketSurvivorvip
· 01-08 05:50
An evening star has appeared and you still want to bottom-fish? That's like charging forward on the battlefield with no supply lines. --- Support levels have all broken through, and indicators are turning downward. Can that even be called a bottom? I think you're just too eager to bottom-fish. --- Once tariff policies kick in, looking only at technicals is too naive. Market psychology is harder to predict than candlesticks. This old trader advises everyone to survive first and foremost. --- Three evening stars don't mean we've hit bottom, they're just telling you that risk hasn't fully played out yet. Risk management comes first, bottom-fishing comes second. --- Seriously, I've seen too many people get trapped near "obvious support levels." Rather than betting on a bounce, it's better to preserve your capital and wait for more certain signals. That's what discipline means. --- You get hurt the most during range-bound consolidation, because you never know if the next move is up or continues to crash down. My advice is to understand the situation clearly before you act. --- Policy turning bearish combined with technical breakdown means entering the market now is basically handing your money to the market. What's wrong with waiting? The market isn't going anywhere anyway.
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NotSatoshivip
· 01-08 05:46
黄昏之星又跌破支撑,这波还得继续熬着,别急着上车 不对,这关税政策一出,技术面都白搭,等信号吧各位 又是抄底的好时机吗?呃...我看不是 跌到位?做梦呢,支撑还能再破 真心劝各位,别被震荡锤到,格局放大看看 感觉这波得跌穿底才算数,V反没那么简单 私は早くに全て売却しました。今こんなに乱れているのに、当時積極的に行動したことをむしろ幸運に思います。 政策の不確実性が非常に高いため、純粋に技術だけを見るのは意味がありません。 まだ底部の範囲をさまよっていますね。確かに今の段階で参入する必要はありません。 もう落ち着いたかどうかを尋ねるのはやめてください。止まるシグナルが再び現れたら操作すればいいのではありませんか
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Degentlemanvip
· 01-08 05:45
黄昏の星が現れるとすぐに底を狙いたくなる?兄弟、これは自殺行為だよ 明確な下落停止のサインも見えないのに突っ込むのは、当然の報いだ 関税の罠もまだ埋まっていないのに、楽観的になりすぎるな 正直なところ、今の参入は賭けに近いから価値がない サインを待つしかない、焦るな、この数日の資金を この下落はまだ終わっていない、さらに底を探る必要がありそうだ テクニカル面は整っているのに、わざわざ雷を踏みに行くのか? もう少し待った方が安心できると思う 下落し続けるまでは動くな、そんな基本的なこともわからないのか レンジ相場は最もダメージが大きい、理解しているか? 黄昏の星が出ているのに反転を狙うなんて、ちょっと欲張りすぎだよ
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NftDeepBreathervip
· 01-08 05:38
The evening star has appeared, and you still want to buy the dip? Brother, you're asking for trouble. Wait, we also need to see how the tariff vote goes, that's the real key. That's right, entering the market now is just throwing money away in this volatility. I'm the one who got burned by the volatility, I regret it so much now. The technicals are this bad, why would you buy? Just watch and wait. The support level is about to break again? Then let it keep falling, anyway I'm already holding no positions. No rush, once the signals are clear then we talk, that way I can trade with peace of mind. The evening star is reversing downward, this pattern usually means nothing good is coming.
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VCsSuckMyLiquidityvip
· 01-08 05:36
Evening star pattern is already drawn, and you're still asking if you can bottom fish...wake up guys --- Seriously, this tariff policy move has really spooked the market, rebounds can't hold steady, I think it'll drop further --- Wait, so the logic is saying we need to continue testing the bottom? Then those brothers who reduced positions this round might have to wait a bit longer --- Every time it's like this, the moment the technical side shows some improvement, can't help but want to bottom fish, then end up getting trapped again --- You're right, Bitcoin is still testing the resistance level, why the rush...be patient --- The voting issue is definitely a key factor, who dares to go all-in when the policy side is unclear --- Looking at this trend, the bottom might still be below...everyone keep your hands steady
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GhostAddressHuntervip
· 01-08 05:35
Evening stars have appeared, still want to buy the dip? This wave really isn't over yet More people are about to get trapped, I said don't rush... That's right, the policy cut is really harsh, technical rebound won't help either Just wait for the signal and call it done, don't follow the crowd and throw money away This wave is a test of mindset, let's see who can sit tight
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retroactive_airdropvip
· 01-08 05:30
黄昏の星が出現しても底値を狙うつもり?兄弟、この波は学費を払うことになりそうだ また偽の反発の演技が始まった、本当にうんざりだ 関税政策が解決できない限り、市場がどれだけ反発しても無駄だ 毎日K線を見ているよりも、真の下落停止のシグナルを待つ方がいい 大V字型の反転?何を考えているんだ、下支えも待っているぞ このような震荡の中で乗ると、その時には泣くことになる 政策面がはっきりしないうちに売買に踏み切るなんて、当然のように損をする 正直なところ、今のところ参入する勇気はない 黄昏の星のこの波、どうしても理解できない人がいるのか?震荡区間では最も損をしやすい 待とう、明確なシグナルが出るまでは何もしない
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