HTX DeepThink: Bitcoin is once again favored as a safe haven, institutional bullish sentiment is on the rise, but retail investor participation is weakening.

According to ChainCatcher news, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzes that the recent international market has shown a risk-averse atmosphere: the US dollar index is strengthening, the yield on US 30-year Treasury bonds continues to rise, gold prices have broken historical highs, and long-term bond yields in Europe and Japan are generally rising, while US stocks have slightly pulled back. The supply pressure of Euro-American bonds and the political uncertainty in Japan have triggered a global long bond sell-off; therefore, investors are turning to assets such as gold and Bitcoin, with gold prices rising to over $3,500 per ounce. On-chain data shows a divergence in Bitcoin network activity: active addresses decreased by 2.2% to 692,000, but on-chain trading volume increased by 8% to $10.3 billion, indicating a decline in retail investor participation and an increase in the proportion of large traders. The Bitcoin futures/spot ratio has fallen to its lowest level since October 2022, with spot trading volume being three times that of alts, and the Taker buy-sell ratio reaching as high as 1.21, indicating strong demand for spot among large investors. In terms of derivation, BTC's long-term realized volatility has dropped to near a low for 2023, but the implied volatility of long-term options is higher than the actual volatility, reflecting market expectations of a rebound in volatility before the end of the year; ETH's realized volatility has continued to rise, with funds once again buying call options, the most popular being the $4,500 and $4,900 call contracts expiring on August 29, while BTC is most active with the $122,000 call option expiring on August 29 and the $116,000 put option expiring on August 22. The implied volatility skew of ETH options for short-term and 30-day terms has shifted from negative to positive, with open interest concentrated in the $4,900-$5,200 call and $3,900-$4,200 put ranges. Overall, the macro environment has stimulated demand for risk-averse assets like gold and Bitcoin, with on-chain and options data showing strong spot buying of Bitcoin, clear bullish sentiment among institutions, but a decrease in retail enthusiasm, as the market remains in a consolidation phase.