Why did Bitcoin rise today? Non-farm payrolls of 64,000 exceeded expectations, and the Federal Reserve's dovish shift ignited the rebound.

December 17, Bitcoin price slightly rebounded to around $87,500, recovering part of the overnight loss. US November non-farm payrolls showed an increase of 64,000 jobs, higher than the expected 45,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, exceeding expectations. This mixed non-farm payroll report keeps the Fed’s probability of rate cuts in January at 24%, reducing macro uncertainties.

Mixed Non-Farm Data Triggers Reallocation of Funds

(Source: CNBC)

To understand why Bitcoin rose today, we must start with the details of the non-farm employment report. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that November non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 jobs, seemingly outperforming the 45,000 forecast by Dow Jones economists. However, deeper data reveals a complex picture: the BLS also revised October employment downward by 105,000 jobs. This combination of downward revisions and the month’s better-than-expected data depicts a job market that is “neither hot nor cold” in a delicate balance.

(Source: FactSet)

More critically, the unemployment rate in November rose to 4.6%, above the market expectation of 4.5%, sparking concerns about a slowing US economy. Gina Bolvin, President of Bolvin Wealth Management Group, said, “Today’s data paints a picture of an economy ‘taking a breather.’ Job growth continues, but cracks are beginning to show.” This assessment accurately captures the dual signals behind the non-farm data.

However, this mixed non-farm report is actually positive for Bitcoin. CME’s “Fed Watch Tool” shows that traders currently assign about a 24% probability to the Fed cutting rates next month, unchanged from the previous trading day. The data is neither strong enough to force a hawkish stance nor weak enough to trigger recession fears. This “Goldilocks” state provides an optimal macro environment for risk assets. This is the macro backdrop explaining why Bitcoin rose today.

Bolvin further pointed out, “This combination gives the Fed more room for policy adjustments without causing panic, and encourages investors to focus more on high-quality, yield-generating, and long-term themes rather than short-term noise.” Under this macro narrative, Bitcoin, as a high-quality long-term asset, naturally benefits from capital reallocation.

US Stock Market Divergence Reveals Capital Rotation Signs

After the non-farm data release, US stocks on December 16 showed divergence, further explaining why Bitcoin rose today. The S&P 500 index fell for the third consecutive trading day, closing down 0.24% at 6,800.26; the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 302.30 points, down 0.62%, to 48,114.26; only the Nasdaq Composite slightly rebounded 0.23%, closing at 23,111.46, indicating capital rotation between high-valued tech stocks and defensive sectors.

This divergence in US stocks was especially evident after the non-farm data. The correction in AI-related stocks weighed on the market, with Broadcom, Oracle, and Microsoft all closing lower on Monday, showing some investors are taking profits from the huge gains in AI trades. Eric Diton, President and CEO of The Wealth Alliance, said, “A pullback and brief pause in AI trading and tech stocks is completely normal. In fact, we are seeing an improvement in market breadth, with capital spreading into more sectors.”

Crude oil prices also declined on Tuesday, falling to the lowest levels since early 2021, dragging energy stocks lower. Exxon Mobil and Chevron both dropped about 2%. Against this backdrop of widespread pressure on traditional assets, the reason why Bitcoin rose today becomes clear: capital is seeking new allocation directions, and as an alternative asset with low correlation to traditional markets, Bitcoin has become a dual target for risk hedging and yield seeking.

From the interpretation of the non-farm data, the delicate balance in the employment market makes investors neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic about the economy. Under this sentiment, traditional stock valuations face pressure, while Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative regains attention. This capital rotation is the logical flow behind Bitcoin’s rise today.

Tightening Supply Narrative Reinforces Bitcoin’s Upside Logic

Returning to the core logic of why Bitcoin rose today, Saylor’s supply contraction thesis warrants in-depth analysis. He pointed out that after breakthroughs in quantum computing, lost Bitcoins will be frozen, substantially reducing circulating supply. Currently, about 3 to 4 million Bitcoins are believed to be permanently lost. If this portion of supply is technically frozen, circulating supply will further tighten.

On the demand side, US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to absorb supply, and the upcoming 2024 halving will reduce block rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 Bitcoins. The supply-demand gap created by tightening supply and increasing demand is the most frequently cited fundamental reason for Bitcoin’s rise today.

Additionally, against the backdrop of divergent US stock performance, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones have closed lower for three consecutive days, while the Nasdaq rebounded slightly by 0.23%. Oil prices have fallen to their lowest since early 2021, and energy stocks are weakening. In this environment, the capital shift from traditional assets to alternatives like Bitcoin is another factor explaining today’s price increase.

Gina Bolvin, President of Bolvin Wealth Management Group, said, “Today’s data paints a picture of an economy ‘taking a breather.’ This combination gives the Fed more room for policy adjustments without causing panic, and encourages investors to focus more on high-quality, yield-generating, and long-term themes.” This macro environment provides a favorable backdrop for Bitcoin’s rise.

In summary, the reasons why Bitcoin rose today include: Saylor’s effective refutation of the quantum threat thesis, the monthly chart showing a bottom reversal pattern similar to 2022, solid technical support around $80,000, the wealth effect from Tesla’s new highs, and the macro environment’s reallocation of funds into alternative assets. As long as the price remains above $80,000, the answer to why Bitcoin rose today will continue to point to dual drivers of technical recovery and fundamental improvement.

Bitcoin Monthly Chart Shows Similar Bottom Reversal Pattern to 2022

(Source: Trading View)

From a technical perspective, analyzing why Bitcoin rose today, the monthly chart shows the price consolidating below the key resistance zone of $108,000 to $110,000, but the structure is very similar to the bottom phase of 2022. After a series of large red monthly candles, Bitcoin built a bottom and rebounded nearly 2x from the lows. The RSI indicator remains above the neutral level of 50, indicating the long-term trend remains bullish.

As long as Bitcoin stays above the middle of $80,000, this consolidation is likely to break upward. If the monthly close can decisively break above $108,000, it could open the door to a new bull market in 2026, with target prices around $140,000 to $150,000. This technical recovery combined with the macro stability expectations from non-farm data fully explains why Bitcoin rose today from multiple angles.

In conclusion, the reasons why Bitcoin rose today include: the mixed non-farm data creating a “Goldilocks” macro environment, the Fed’s January rate cut probability remaining steady at 24%, US stock divergence triggering capital rotation, Tesla’s new highs generating a wealth effect, and strong technical support above $80,000. The subtle balance in non-farm data is the core catalyst for this rebound.