Why the collapse of Strategy could be the next "Black Swan" of cryptocurrency in 2026

Strategy ( previously was MicroStrategy), currently the largest Bitcoin holding organization in the world, owning 671.268 BTC, accounting for over 3.2% of the total circulating Bitcoin supply. This makes the company a high-risk “link” in the global Bitcoin ecosystem.

If Strategy collapses, the impact of this event could far exceed the 2022 FTX collapse. Below are the reasons why this threat is entirely real, the factors that could trigger it, and the severity of the consequences if it occurs.

Strategy: “Gambling” with leverage on Bitcoin

The entire value and reputation of Strategy are now tied to Bitcoin. The company has spent over $50 billion to buy BTC, mainly through debt and stock issuance. Meanwhile, its software business generates only about $460 million annually – a figure too small compared to the financial exposure the company faces.

As of December 2025, Strategy’s stock price trades well below the value of the Bitcoin holdings. The current market capitalization is around $45 billion, while the value of the BTC held is estimated at approximately $59–60 billion.

Strategy stock price in the second half of 2025 | Source: Google Finance Investors are undervaluing the company’s assets due to concerns over stock dilution, debt burden, and operational sustainability.

The average cost basis of each BTC owned by Strategy is about $74,972, with most purchases occurring near Bitcoin’s peak in Q4/2025.

More than 95% of the company’s value depends directly on Bitcoin price fluctuations.

If BTC drops sharply, Strategy risks being stuck with billions of USD in debt and preferred shares with no feasible exit.

Notably, since October 10, Bitcoin has fallen 20%, but the loss of the MSTR stock has been even more than double during the same period.

Comparison of MSTR stock performance with NASDAQ-100 and S&P 500 in 2025 | Source: Saylor Tracker## Black Swan Risk from Strategy

Strategy has employed aggressive financial measures to raise capital for Bitcoin purchases, including selling common stock and issuing new preferred shares.

Currently, the company bears over $8.2 billion in convertible debt and owns more than $7.5 billion in preferred shares. These financial instruments require large cash flows: a total of $779 million annually for interest and dividends.

At current prices, if Bitcoin drops below $13,000, Strategy could become insolvent. Although this scenario is unlikely in the short term, history shows that Bitcoin can experience deep declines of 70–80%, which are not rare.

A major crash, especially if accompanied by liquidity crises or volatility caused by ETF funds, could push the company into a critical situation.

Total debt of Strategy as of Q3 2025 | Source: Market capitalization of companies. Unlike FTX, Strategy is not an exchange. However, the impact of its collapse could be much broader. Strategy owns more Bitcoin than any organization except some ETFs and governments.

If forced to liquidate or if panic ensues due to Strategy’s collapse, BTC prices could plummet sharply – creating a negative domino effect across the entire crypto market.

Although Strategy has pledged not to sell its BTC holdings, this depends on the company’s ability to raise capital.

By the end of 2025, Strategy still has $2.2 billion in reserves – enough to cover financial obligations for about two years. However, this buffer could disappear if BTC prices fall sharply and the capital markets freeze.

How likely is Michael Saylor’s Strategy to collapse?

The collapse is not certain, but the risk is increasing.

Strategy’s current position is very fragile: its stock has fallen 50% this year, and the market value of (NAV) is now below 0.8 times. Institutional investors are shifting toward Bitcoin ETFs, which are cheaper and structurally simpler.

Index funds may exclude MSTR from their portfolios due to complex financial structures, leading to billions of USD being passively withdrawn.

Strategy’s NAV | Source: Saylor Tracker If Bitcoin drops below $50,000 and stays there, Strategy’s market cap could fall below its total debt, exhausting its capital raising capacity – forcing the company to sell assets or restructure.

The probability of total collapse in 2026 is considered low but not impossible. An initial estimate places this probability at 10%–20%, based on current balance sheet risks, market trends, and Bitcoin price volatility.

However, if this scenario occurs, the damage could far surpass the FTX incident. FTX was a centralized exchange, whereas Strategy is a holder of key Bitcoin supplies.

If Strategy’s BTC floods into the market, prices and confidence in Bitcoin could be severely affected, triggering a wave of sell-offs across the entire crypto market.