Summary

Today’s Market Update: HTX DeepThink: US-Japan macro trends shift abruptly, sentiment recovery during BTC pullback remains fragile; Fed expected to cut rates by 25bp this week, Powell may stress high bar for rate cuts next year.

I. Evening News

1. HTX DeepThink: US-Japan macro trends shift abruptly, sentiment recovery during BTC pullback remains fragile

On December 8, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research analyst Chloe pointed out that as the year-end approaches, the global macro environment has become more volatile due to diverging US-Japan policies, putting adjustment pressure on global risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Key drivers and conflicting signals:

US policy uncertainty: Although inflation data shows slowing, and market expectations for rate cuts are rising, news that Kevin Hassett may replace the Fed chair from the Trump camp led to rising bond yields.

Japanese policy shift: The Japan Times revealed that BOJ officials are inclined to raise the policy rate to 0.75% (the highest since 1995) at the December 19 meeting, further intensifying the US-Japan policy divergence.

Bitcoin market performance:

Institutional defense: ETF capital flows are negative, and futures open interest is declining, showing institutions are in a defensive stance.

Options contradiction: Market implied volatility (IV) has broadly dropped (short-term IV from 57% to 48%), signaling reduced expectations for volatility. However, Amberdata’s risk reversal indicator remains negative (about -4.9), meaning investors still tend to hedge downside risk with put options.

The report emphasizes that large funds have lowered their year-end bullish target range to $100,000–$118,000, while $80,000–$82,000 is widely seen as Bitcoin’s key support range.

2. Institutions: Fed expected to cut rates by 25bp this week, Powell may stress high bar for rate cuts next year

On December 8, the US dollar fell today as the market awaits the upcoming Fed policy decision this week, with broad expectations of another rate cut at this meeting. Deutsche Bank analysts said in a report that the Fed may announce its third and final 25-basis-point rate cut for 2025 on Wednesday, and this rate decision is unlikely to be unanimous.

Analysts stated that Chair Powell’s press conference and accompanying statement will be crucial: “We expect Powell to emphasize that the bar for further rate cuts in early 2026 is very high, signaling a short-term pause in rate cuts.”

3. Argentina may allow banks to offer crypto trading, signaling major financial shift

On December 8, Argentina’s central bank (BCRA) is considering lifting its long-standing ban on traditional financial institutions offering crypto trading and custody services. If implemented, this would shift regulatory policy from “explicit prohibition” to “regulated integration,” driven by Argentina’s unique economic reality and rising domestic demand for digital assets.

Currently, BCRA regulations prohibit commercial banks from offering or facilitating crypto trades for clients—a rule originally intended to reduce risk and curb the use of unregulated financial entities. However, President Milei’s administration takes a more free-market and overall pro-crypto stance, and is evaluating a series of regulatory reforms to allow banks to formally enter the market under a strict new framework. This pragmatic move responds to reality: Argentinians are already among the world’s most active crypto adopters, motivated by chronic high inflation, severe currency volatility, and a reliance on US dollar stablecoins to protect savings.

The main driver for institutionalizing crypto trading is to bring the massive activity already occurring in the shadow financial system into the regulated banking sector. For years, ordinary Argentinians have relied on Bitcoin and stablecoins to cope with the persistent devaluation of the peso and to circumvent FX controls. If major Argentine banks enter the crypto field, it will dramatically change the local financial ecosystem. Currently, the market is dominated by independent virtual asset service providers (VASPs) and native crypto exchanges. Once banks leverage their large customer bases and capital strength, they could quickly dominate and pose strong competitive pressure on existing crypto firms.

4. Banshaxia: Fed rate cut this week will normalize liquidity, broad market rally expected this week or even this month

On December 8, Chinese crypto analyst Banshaxia wrote, “This week’s Fed rate cut and renewed balance sheet expansion will normalize tight liquidity, so this week will see broad gains (US stocks, crypto, precious metals, etc.), and the coming month may also be a month of broad gains.”

Banshaxia also cited an article published on November 11, stating, “Starting in December, the Fed will stop shrinking its balance sheet and may begin expanding it, returning liquidity to normal, similar to October 2019. The real liquidity flood will wait until May next year after Trump controls the Fed, similar to March 2020.”

5. Trump releases national security strategy, makes no mention of crypto or blockchain

On December 8, Trump released a national security strategy on Friday outlining his administration’s priorities, noting that America’s “core, vital national interests” center on artificial intelligence and quantum computing. “We want to ensure that American technology and standards—especially in AI, biotechnology, and quantum computing—drive the world forward.”

6. Bitcoin treasury company Twenty One, led by US Commerce Secretary’s son, transfers 43,122 BTC

On December 8, according to Lookonchain monitoring, Bitcoin investment company Twenty One Capital—backed by Cantor Fitzgerald and Jack Mallers—just transferred 43,122 BTC (($3.94 billion)) to a new wallet.

Previously, it was reported that Twenty One Capital is expected to list on the NYSE on December 9.

II. Market Overview

(Huobi top losers and gainers list)

1. Current Bitcoin price is $92,290, Ethereum price is $3,179, HTX is currently at $0.000001648, up 0.48%.

2. Huobi top 3 gainers: PING ((23%), VOXEL (20%), ZEUS (18%).

Huobi top 3 losers: MOONPIG ((-57%), ZEROLEND (-43%), MXC (-29%).

3. In the past 24 hours, 129,001 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $461 million.

4. In the past 4 hours, the BTC contract global long-short ratio is 1.0982, with longs in the lead.

III. On-Chain Watch

According to Coinbob’s popular address monitoring, both “BTC OG Insider Whale” and “pension-usdt.eth” opened large ETH long positions today; Hyperliquid’s largest BTC short whale “Ultimate Short” closed part of its short positions for profit. Details below:

“BTC OG Insider Whale”: Currently has a 5x leveraged ETH long with an unrealized profit of $4.46 million (13%), average price $3,048, liquidation price $1,801, position size about $170 million, transferred in $70 million last night and this morning to open positions, currently the largest ETH bull on Hyperliquid.

“pension-usdt.eth”: Opened a new 2x leveraged ETH long at 3:00 today, position size about $62.55 million, average price $3,087, unrealized profit $880,000 (2.8%), weekly profit $6.14 million.

“Calm Order King”: Over the past two days, BTC, ZEC, SOL shorts have turned from $600,000 profit to loss, current total position size about $19.09 million, account unrealized loss about $930,000, account funds dropped from $1.5 million to $540,000.

“Ultimate Short”: Closed about $2.43 million BTC shorts today, current BTC short position size about $77.04 million, down nearly $30 million from ten days ago, unrealized profit $16.68 million (433%), liquidation price $102,000, has earned $9.45 million from funding rate settlements, currently the largest BTC bear on Hyperliquid.

“Paul Wei”: Since November 16, has accumulated $3,600 profit, no new limit orders filled yet, currently holds 2x leveraged BTC long with ~5% unrealized profit, position accounts for about 7% of total $100,000 capital, most funds still in limit orders. BTC long-short trigger range is about $90,700 to $94,400.

IV. Analyst Max’s Views

1. Fundamentals: With US stocks closed for the weekend, there was little impact on the crypto market; main focus is on tonight’s US stock market open. The probability of a 25bp Fed rate cut in December has risen again to 86.2%, so the short-term fundamentals are positive and could be bullish.

2. Technicals: BTC is currently fluctuating above $92,000, consolidating at high levels after a rebound. As long as it doesn’t fall below $92,000, it remains in a strong consolidation; if it breaks below, beware of a potential pullback to the $90,000 level.

3. ETH: ETH is currently holding above $3,100, with a trend clearly stronger than BTC. As long as the $3,000 level holds, the medium-term structure remains bullish, and the short-term is expected to maintain a strong consolidation. The above are personal opinions for reference only.