Recently, a decision by the Bank of Japan has attracted widespread attention in the market. The central bank announced an interest rate hike to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, which was supposed to support the appreciation of the yen. However, the reality is quite the opposite—the yen has fallen against the dollar, reaching a historic low.

What is reflected behind this is the failure of the traditional monetary policy transmission mechanism. The Japanese government subsequently signaled that it may directly intervene in the exchange rate market. When the core policy tool of the world's third-largest economy malfunctions, this signal is worth following.

From historical data, the issue becomes clearer. After the last three interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, Bitcoin's fall has been between 20% and 31%. The logic is as follows: if Japan's strong intervention causes the yen to soar, it will trigger large-scale "yen arbitrage trading" liquidation, tightening global liquidity and putting indiscriminate selling pressure on risk assets.

But this time the situation is more complex. The erosion of the Central Bank's authority and the failure of traditional policy transmission have brought a new uncertainty. This is not just a question of predicting whether Bitcoin will fall, but what kind of new risks we are facing. Predictions based on historical patterns may fail in this environment, and the impact of liquidity tightening on the crypto market may also exceed expectations.

What investors need is a clear understanding of such systemic risks—not just an analysis of the technical or financial aspects.