Regarding the predictive effect of Bitcoin's four-year Halving cycle, my views have changed significantly. I used to be completely convinced, but now, to be honest, my confidence has diminished quite a bit - probably only about ten percent left.

Why? Upon careful consideration, there are too many variables. The market consensus is no longer what it used to be, the US dollar policy is adjusting, geopolitical situations are fluctuating, regulations in various countries are tightening, and the ecological construction of a certain leading exchange is also changing market expectations. Moreover, Bitcoin's positioning as "digital gold" has been increasingly recognized by more institutions—these factors combined make the single driving force of Halving seem not so absolute.

So what will the real trend look like? My personal judgment is: the market will be in a long-term consolidation, not skyrocketing, but quietly accumulating through fluctuations, breaking through previous highs time and again, until one day we suddenly realize that a truly barrier-free entrance to financial freedom has been formed. This process may be more tortuous than expected, but the direction of the trend should not change.