A big news broke yesterday: Trend Research, an institution, increased its holdings by 46,000 ETH, bringing the total holdings to nearly 580,000 ETH. Even more shocking is that their average purchase price is stuck at $3,208. At the current price, their unrealized loss has already exceeded $140 million. Not only that, but they are also leveraging nearly $900 million from lending protocols to play the game.

This operation reveals two pieces of information. First, large funds are indeed optimistic about ETH's long-term potential—they buy more as the price drops. Second, leveraging is a double-edged sword—if ETH continues to fall, the risk of liquidation will significantly increase, and market volatility could be amplified. Don't be blindly attracted by institutions to buy the dip; they are mainly long-term holders. If you're playing short-term, the approach is completely different.

**The candlestick chart says it all**

The 4-hour chart has already broken down. The MACD lines have a death cross below the zero line, indicating that downward momentum is strengthening. The 3100 resistance has long been broken, let alone 3180. Can it hold in the short term? The 2900 support is shaking and has been touched multiple times in the 2950-2920 range.

My straightforward view: today will likely test the 2900-2880 support zone. Once broken, a drop to 2700 is not surprising. When a rebound occurs, if the MACD is still below zero, then the rebound is basically a window to escape, not a reversal.

The technicals still favor the bears overwhelmingly. At this point, don’t try to guess the bottom. Falling is for rising, and rises will also have corrections—that’s market law. Plan ahead and avoid passive reactions when the time comes.