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The Federal Reserve's "double life" is about to be exposed.

Tomorrow at 3 a.m., the December meeting minutes will be released—this document, in essence, is a preview of policy directions for the next two years. On the surface, it signals a rate pause to soothe the markets, but secretly, it harbors a strong consensus against "pausing rate cuts." The conflicting forces tearing at each other are more evident than ever.

It may seem contradictory, but in reality, it reflects the Federal Reserve's true dilemma: inflation hasn't been fully tamed, yet the risk of a recession is knocking on the door. Officials are walking a tightrope between "controlling inflation" and "preventing a recession." How difficult this balancing act is can be seen in every word of the minutes.

What does this mean for the crypto market and risk assets?

If the minutes lean hawkish—emphasizing the necessity to pause rate cuts—then the illusion that "easing is coming" will be shattered immediately. Risk assets will definitely face short-term pressure, but in the long run, this tough stance might actually be the necessary path toward a genuine soft landing.

If the language leaves room for flexibility, it indicates that the Fed itself is uncertain. The game in early 2026 will become even more intense, and volatility will skyrocket.

More interestingly, the true value of these minutes lies not in "what was said," but in "what was left unsaid." Any wording suggesting a "pause in rate cuts" is a cold shot against the current market optimism. The Fed is rebuilding its policy buffer, and the path to easing in 2026 is destined to be bumpy.

In essence, the foundation of global risk assets—including cryptocurrencies—is built on deep suspicion of the Federal Reserve. Staying sober is always more brutal than blind optimism, but it’s also safer.

How do you judge? Share your thoughts in the comments.