Many friends ask me: With the Federal Reserve starting QE next year, is the Bitcoin bear market about to end?

My view is very straightforward—Bitcoin has not entered a bear market at all, and this bull market rally is not over yet. The current correction is just a phase of consolidation before reaching the top, and the true bottom of the bear market won't appear until the first quarter of 2026.

The past three months have indeed been disappointing. From October to December, Bitcoin's performance was weak, and many of my previous judgments have been challenged by the market. The annual targets of 150,000 and 200,000 have not been met, and these are facts.

But this does not change my long-term outlook. Short-term fluctuations are like noise; the long-term trend is the melody.

From a cycle perspective, Bitcoin's 4-year cycle framework has not broken down; it has only evolved. The magnitude of bear market declines may decrease, and the entire operational mode is gradually shifting from wave-like fluctuations to stepwise rises—sideways for a period, then upward, sideways again, then up again. This is a new change in Bitcoin's cycle characteristics.

From a technical standpoint, classic indicators like the Rainbow Chart and the Shapeshifter Index are now in the dollar-cost averaging zone. What does this mean? At this position, it is actually a relatively ideal time to build positions.

More importantly, new signals are emerging at the institutional level—companies are starting to use cash flow to allocate Bitcoin, and this attitude shift is worth noting. Bottoming in a bear market and chasing gains in a bull market are completely different strategies. The current logic of action seems to lean more toward the former.