The recent changes in the crypto community's atmosphere have been quite unexpected. Not long ago, there was an optimistic sentiment of "Christmas approaching $90,000," and now it has turned into a pessimistic tone of "dropping to $40,000 in January." Many friends are anxiously asking me, "Should we start buying the dip now or wait and see?"

Let's first analyze this mysterious four-year cycle. Many analysts describe it as profound and divine, as if it were a rule set by God. In reality, it is simply the result of collective cycles of euphoria and panic in the market. During the 2017 ICO boom and the 2021 DeFi and NFT explosion, the pattern was always the same—massive capital inflows push prices higher, then after the bubble bursts, funds withdraw, creating a roughly four-year fluctuation cycle. What is the current situation? The previous bubble has not yet fully digested, and the influx of fresh capital is clearly insufficient, so a correction is highly probable.

Regarding the prediction of $40,000 in January, I think "there is a possibility, but don't overinterpret it." From a technical perspective, BTC's current downtrend channel has been established. The $50,000 level is an important support. If it breaks, the next target points to $45,000, and further down to $40,000. However, from a fundamental standpoint, Bitcoin's adoption level is significantly higher than in 2021. Although some institutions are reducing their holdings, many long-term investors are observing quietly. Even if a correction occurs, it is unlikely to turn into a catastrophic crash at the floor level—that's my understanding of the subsequent market trend.