Recently, the performance of the overall market is worth pondering. From 3915 points to around 4100 points, this wave of行情 has some interesting features——the index is being suppressed by the financial sector, but thematic stocks are blooming in multiple areas. What exactly is going on here?

First, let's talk about the market's control logic. Many people get anxious when the index can't rise, but I believe this "rise a bit, suppress a bit" rhythm is actually a good thing. Instead of a rapid surge that exhausts future space, it's better to have a slow bull trend. If the speed of rise is too fast, the end point of this行情 will come sooner. From this perspective, market control is not a bad thing; it’s actually aimed at prolonging the trend cycle.

Regarding today's走势, under the suppression of financial weights, it’s basically certain that the index won't have a big rally. In the morning, it oscillated narrowly under this pressure, and in the afternoon, it is likely to continue, possibly even with intraday dips. But don’t panic; the controlling funds will step in to pull it back. The overall pattern is one of no big rise and no big fall. Looking at the moving averages below, the 5-day moving average support is around 4050 points. As long as this level holds, bullish sentiment remains strong. Only if it effectively breaks below this level should we consider guarding against a short-term sharp correction.

Also, pay attention to the atmosphere in the Asia-Pacific markets — generally weak. Although A-shares are seeing a全面开花 of themes, trading volume has not further expanded. With reduced volume during the rise, market sentiment can easily fluctuate, and the probability of intraday dips has increased, but this is not enough to shake the medium- to long-term trend.

Now, let's look at the thematic sector, which is the real protagonist. Commercial aerospace is strengthening again, AI applications and AI intelligent agents are experiencing爆发, and controllable nuclear fusion has completed a轮动上涨. Over 3700 stocks are in the red, which is a典型 example of a行情 where权重搭台, 题材唱戏——main forces suppress the index consolidation, while funds集中发力在题材板块.

The absolute main line of the current market remains科技, but the炒作方向 has shifted. From the previous硬科技 sectors like CPO光模块 and算力, it has moved to now’s commercial aerospace, AI applications, brain-computer interfaces, and国产替代 these niche areas. Although the轮动节奏 of each theme varies, overall they all maintain an upward trend. The core strategy at this time is to hold positions——the trend hasn't ended yet, and holding cash means missing out.

For those funds that have already taken heavy positions early on, they have already gained substantial profits and can consider taking some profits during divergences; for those who hesitated and missed the boat earlier, now is the time to dare to deploy. Continuing to wait and see will only cause missed opportunities.

Returning to the main line outlook, it’s better to downplay the涨跌 of the index and focus on the main thematic targets. The high-level consolidation from 3915 to 4100 points is actually necessary. Commercial aerospace led the涨势 in December and is now entering an acceleration phase, which can be referenced against last year's CPO走势规律; brain-computer interfaces always follow a "upward trend with震荡洗盘"; controllable nuclear fusion is accelerating today, combined with last night's heavy好消息 about AI applications, the轮动上涨机会 in the科技主线 continues to exist.

The main sequence of spring行情 is very clear:科技 is the absolute main line, the anti-involution track follows closely, and the周期有色 and大消费 are ranked third and fourth. During the strong phase of the absolute main line, funds will not easily flow out. Only when the main line targets'涨幅 become too high and sentiment is疯狂, will funds shift to other sectors. So, once the方向 is chosen correctly, any回调 is a good opportunity to add positions.

Finally, let's talk about Hong Kong stocks. The Hang Seng Index has recently been weak, and in this trend行情, Hong Kong stocks have already lagged behind A-shares. The reason is simple: when A-shares show strong赚钱效应, the willingness of southbound funds to buy Hong Kong stocks decreases significantly. However, from a medium-term perspective, Hong Kong stocks will inevitably have a wave of行情 this year. Hong Kong stocks gather many internet giants, and this year is the元年 of AI applications. These companies are expected to leverage AI to achieve both performance and valuation growth, which could drive Hong Kong stocks out of a trend.