Japan's 30-Year Government Bond Auction Demand Plummets: BOJ's Dilemma


Subscription multiples drop from 4.04 to 3.14, a 22% decline.
On the surface, it appears to be a technical factor—institutional funds reallocating at the beginning of the year.
But the deeper issue is: the market is betting that the BOJ will eventually abandon YCC and allow long-term interest rates to rise.
If demand for the 30-year government bond remains weak, the BOJ faces a dilemma:
1. Continue intervention → Yen continues to depreciate (already broken 158)
2. Let rates rise → Government debt costs soar
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