The US credit market has recently performed well, with the Federal Reserve's high-yield bond distress index dropping to a historic low of 0.06, indicating ample liquidity and a continuously improving corporate financing environment. High-yield bond ETFs have gained about 9% so far this year, and capital's pursuit of the stock market—especially AI and large tech sectors—remains strong.

However, the story in the cryptocurrency market is somewhat different. Although Bitcoin's futures open interest remains high at $617.6 billion, its price has been hovering around $91,000 for a long time, lacking the momentum to break upward. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju bluntly stated: institutional funds are flowing into stocks and gold, and the appeal of cryptocurrencies is clearly weakening.

From another perspective, institutional investors holding 673,000 Bitcoins (such as whales like MicroStrategy) show no signs of large-scale selling. Instead, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has further reinforced the long-term holding consensus. This delicate balance suggests that in the short term, Bitcoin is unlikely to see a significant surge, nor is there an immediate risk of a crash.

Ultimately, to break this stalemate, it may still require the Fed's rate cuts, clearer regulatory frameworks, or a new market dynamic following the halving cycle. Until then, Bitcoin is likely to remain in consolidation for a period.