Prediction platforms have been active recently. On January 8th, a mysterious trader made over $400,000 by accurately betting on the political situation in Venezuela. After this trade gained attention, the platform quickly added several new contracts—users can now bet on whether the US will take action against Colombia or Cuba in the near future.

It seems that more and more investors are starting to bet on geopolitical risks in prediction markets. Although these contracts operate in a legal and ethical gray area, their popularity continues to rise, especially amid accelerating changes in the international landscape.

Data clearly illustrates the point. The current consensus among traders is that the probability of Iran's Supreme Leader stepping down before June 30th is about 36%, significantly higher than the level before the US took action against Venezuela (less than 20%). As for Trump "taking over" Greenland within the year, the probability remains low but is slowly increasing.

What do these numbers reflect? Investors are re-evaluating the global geopolitical landscape with real money. As foreign policy shifts toward a more hardline stance, prediction markets are becoming an interesting "barometer," revealing the market's true expectations for future events.