Personal opinion: Ethereum still has a chance to rise, but in the short term, it will consolidate at the bottom. In the medium term, look for resonance; avoid bottom fishing and wait for confirmation signals.

1. Core conclusions

- Short-term: ETH fluctuates between $3050-$3300, with support at $3080-$3170 and resistance at $3270-$3300. Without volume breakout, it's just consolidation; false breakouts to trap buyers should be cautious.
- Medium-term: February-March is critical. Only when ETF funds flow back in, the Federal Reserve signals rate cuts, and on-chain chips stabilize and resonate will there be a trend upward.
- Risks: US-EU tariffs#欧美关税风波冲击市场 trade friction, institutional selling pressure, regulatory noise. Beware of further drops after breaking support.

2. Key levels (2026.1.20)

- Support: 3170 (weak), 3080 (strong), 3000 (psychological level).
- Resistance: 3220 (weak), 3270-3300 (strong). Only when above 3300 can a rebound space open up.

3. Trading suggestions (rebalancing expert)

1. Mainly observe; avoid guessing the bottom. Wait until volume increases and stabilizes at 3270 or drops below 3080 before acting.
2. Bullish attempt: stabilize at 3170-3180, small position, stop loss at 3080, target 3270, quick in and out.
3. Bearish attempt: rebound from 3270-3300 is weak, with volume shrinking and upper shadows, small position, stop loss at 3320, target 3180.
4. Position size: total position ≤30%, with stop loss, do not hold large positions.
5. I see many people attributing this decline to US-EU tariffs and trade friction. My view is different. I predicted this structural pullback before the friction emerged. News is always just a reference; bubbles do not determine the market's structural direction. The decline is due to not reaching the top, not stabilizing long positions, causing panic and technical retracement.
6. Recently, Bitcoin has been diverging from US stocks and similar markets, so everyone should ignore news and focus mainly on structure and capital flow.

$ETH