#ETHTrendWatch

🧠 Recent Price Action Summary
🔹 Short‑term bullish bias continued: After reclaiming key levels above ~$3,200 recently, ETH has shown support near major zones like ~$3,030–$3,130 — levels that buyers are defending to maintain the uptrend structure.
🔹 Resistance still significant: Critical short‑term resistance sits ~3.34K–3.44K, with upside beyond that opening the door to psychological levels like $3,500 and deeper rallies.
🔹 Momentum indicators mixed: RSI remains bullish but nearing short‑term overbought ranges, suggesting possible consolidation or mild pullback before continuation.
🔹 Broader market influence: Macro risk sentiment, like geopolitical tensions and risk‑off trading, has weighed on Bitcoin and Ethereum alike, leading to increased volatility.
On‑chain data also shows strong staking demand and record validator activity, a supply squeeze that underpins medium‑long term fundamentals even if price consolidates.

📊 Technical Levels to Watch
Key Support Zones

🛡 $3,030–$3,130: Critical bull structure support — violation could trigger deeper pullbacks.

🛡 $3,000: Psychological base and long‑term pivot.

Critical Resistance Levels

🚧 $3,340–$3,440: First barrier where sellers often defend.

🚀 $3,500+: Break & close above this opens up broader continuation potential.

📉 My Trading Strategy (Risk‑Adjusted)
1) Bias: “Tactical Bullish but Cautious”
ETH remains in a near‑term uptrend but lacks explosive volume, so the market could chop before trending. I’m not blindly long; I’m reacting to price signals.

2) Entry / Long Setups
✅ Long near support (~$3,030–$3,130)
• If price retraces into support with a bullish rejection candle and volume spike → enter scalp or swing long
• Target range: $3.34K → $3.5K
✅ Breakout Entry above $3,440
• If ETH closes above resistance with strong volume → trend continuation long
• Target: $3,500–$3,650+

3) Risk Management & Stops
🔹 If holding from support:
• Stop‑loss below $2,970–$3,000
🔹 If breakout long:
• Stop‑loss below breakout candle low
Position sizing: Trade small sizes in consolidation; scale in after confirmed breakout or support hold.

4) Optional Short / Hedging
⚠️ Only consider short exposure if:
• Price breaks below $3,000 with follow‑through momentum
• Volume expands to the downside
• Macro risk intensifies (e.g., broad risk sell‑offs)
Short targets could be $2,800 → $2,650 in aggressive setups.

📅 Market Context & Macro Tailwinds

Insurance from staking demand: Record ETH staking and dwindling exit queues reduce free float — bullish long term.

Range compression: Volume contraction around key pivots hints at a potential volatility expansion soon.

Risk sentiment still matters: Macro factors like tariff tensions influence broader crypto risk appetite.

🧩 Conclusion
ETH’s recent price action points to bullish resilience above key support levels, but the path to higher targets will require clean breakouts with volume. My strategy balances tactical long entries at support and breakout momentum plays, with disciplined risk management to protect capital.