Satoshi Nakamoto's Legacy and 2026 Asset Allocation: The Truths and Myths Hidden in the Crypto Market

The cryptocurrency market in 2026 is transcending mere price fluctuations and is being shaken by deeper macroeconomic waves. As prominent DeFi researcher Ignas points out, the current market is hostage to the US stock market bubble. This article examines the true challenges and opportunities of the crypto market based on his analytical framework.

The Reality of the US Macro Bubble Dominating All Assets

The US stock market is currently at a level comparable to the peak of the 1999 internet bubble. The price-to-earnings ratio (PER) has swollen to 40.5 times, far exceeding the 32 times before the 1929 crash. Furthermore, the total market cap to GDP ratio, which Warren Buffett calls the “best valuation indicator,” has reached 230%, up 77% from the long-term trend. Before the 1929 crash, this ratio was 130%.

Of course, there are arguments that “this time might be different.” The “currency devaluation trade” advocates that inflation is necessary to reduce dollar purchasing power and to digest debt. However, if this claim were true, stock prices and money supply increases should be proportional. But in reality, they are not. The speed of stock price increases has reached 28 times the speed of money creation, a phenomenon that cannot be explained by normal currency devaluation.

While some interpret this as the AI revolution invalidating traditional indicators, macroeconomic uncertainties, inflation, and geopolitical tensions are intensifying, and investor concerns remain ongoing. People are seeking stability, asset ownership, and positive returns amid “universal economic anxiety.”

Bitcoin: Transition from Risk Assets to Safe Assets in Progress

In this environment, the narrative around Bitcoin is fundamentally changing. Many investors still see BTC as a risk asset, believing it only rises when macro conditions stabilize. However, Ignas highlights a “not-so-obvious truth” that differs.

Bitcoin is increasingly functioning as a safe asset, hedging against macro uncertainties, instability in the international order, and declining trust in fiat currencies. The essence of Satoshi Nakamoto’s asset, which has long been misunderstood, is finally being recognized correctly by the market. When holders, driven by fear, succumb to buyers viewing Bitcoin as digital gold, a “large-scale rotation” will be complete.

However, significant risks exist. If the entire stock market crashes, cryptocurrencies could be dragged down with it. The vulnerability of crypto in this bubble environment should not be underestimated.

Retail Investors Exit and Institutional Money Fully Enters

In the crypto world, many still await the “mass return of retail investors.” But reality is harsh. Retail investors have been repeatedly harvested through 2017 ICOs, 2021 NFTs, and 2024 Memecoins. They have consistently acted as providers of exit liquidity.

The next influx of capital is expected to come from institutions, not individuals. As Zach from Chainlink points out, institutional investors do not buy worthless coins. What they seek are:

• Tokens with “dividend-like” attributes, such as fee switches and real yields
• Projects with clear product-market fit (PMF), such as stablecoin issuers and prediction markets
• Clearly regulated targets

Tiger Research boldly predicts: “Utility-oriented token economies have failed. Governance voting rights have failed to attract investors.” Projects that cannot generate sustainable income will exit the industry.

A major challenge for 2026 emerges here. If tokens cannot provide real value, institutions may bypass tokens altogether and buy shares of the development companies directly. For crypto to truly succeed, value must flow into tokens, not into Labs companies. Otherwise, crypto will merely be a reconstruction of the traditional financial system.

Quantum Computing Risks: Perception and Reality in a Two-Layered Structure

Quantum risks have two layers. One is the technical risk that quantum computers could destroy blockchains, and the other is the perceptual risk that investors perceive quantum risks as realistic.

Few truly understand quantum technology, and the crypto market is dominated by narratives, emotions, and momentum. This characteristic makes crypto extremely vulnerable to FUD attacks. Satoshi Nakamoto’s wallet does not need to be physically compromised by quantum computers; just announcements from Google or IBM about “quantum breakthroughs” are enough to trigger large-scale panic.

From a risk mitigation perspective, Ethereum has already prepared quantum resistance capabilities in its roadmap (The Splurge), and Vitalik has explicitly stated the necessity of this upgrade. Meanwhile, Bitcoin faces potential “internal conflict” due to a hard fork to upgrade its signature algorithm from ECDSA to a quantum-resistant scheme.

If BTC neglects preparations and internal conflict erupts, a wave of portfolio rebalancing could drag down all crypto assets. Meanwhile, new Layer 1 chains might launch with “post-quantum cryptography” as a key selling point, but this could be just marketing talk.

Prediction Markets: The Industry is Still in Its Early Stages

In the crypto space, there are no more obvious opportunities than prediction markets. Andy Hall, research advisor at a16z crypto, has an insight that is remarkably accurate and hard to ignore.

Prediction markets entered the mainstream in 2024, and by 2026, they will be larger, more widespread, and more intelligent. The market will evolve beyond big questions like “Who will win the US presidential election” to highly specific outcome predictions.

More contracts will be created. Real-time odds will exist for geopolitics, supply chains, and all kinds of events. Simultaneously, AI agents will scan the internet, extract signals, and execute trades more efficiently than human analysts.

The greatest trading opportunity arises here: “Who decides the truth?” As market size expands, arbitrage betting becomes a concern. As seen in the Venezuela invasion and Zelensky markets, existing solutions (like UMA) fail to capture subtle nuances, leading to controversy and fraud accusations.

The growth of crypto assets in 2026 depends on how well a decentralized truth mechanism can be built. This will likely become the next major frontier.