#加密市场隔夜V型震荡 Fragile Balance After the Crash! Bitcoin Market Analysis for February 4

The market is seeking balance amid extremely low price levels and a chaotic macro environment. Every sharp rise and fall resonates with macroeconomic factors, capital flows, and human emotions. After several days of intense selling, the cryptocurrency market is finally attempting to find some stability in this turbulent macro environment. As of the morning of February 4, Bitcoin is trading at $75,800, down 3.78% in 24 hours, with a daily low of $72,877 — the lowest since November 6, 2024! Over the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network reached $279 million, with longs accounting for over 60%, indicating that market panic has yet to be effectively alleviated.

Today’s market sentiment index is 13, in the “Extreme Fear” zone. Panic on social media and data from derivatives markets confirm forced liquidations of leveraged positions. This persistent fear, combined with the greed index, negative financing rates, and high liquidation rates, typically indicates ongoing selling pressure.

Data shows that in the past 24 hours, 165,781 traders were liquidated, totaling $516 million, with $373 million in long positions and $144 million in shorts. Market liquidity has become noticeably thin, so even relatively small buy and sell orders can trigger sharp price swings, which in turn can cause larger-scale forced liquidations, creating a vicious cycle.

Internal structural issues within the market contribute to a complex and fragile situation. On the macro and regulatory fronts, multiple uncertainties are weighing on market sentiment.

Concerns persist over the “hawkish” stance of Kevin Woor, the nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair, proposed by Trump.

The “blurred” economic outlook worsens the situation.

Due to a partial government shutdown, the key US January non-farm employment report has been delayed. The absence of this critical economic data removes an important basis for assessing the health of the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s policy direction, further increasing uncertainty.

Regulatory deadlock is also worrisome.

Although the White House has convened meetings with crypto companies, major banks, and government officials to push stalled legislation, no progress has been made on the core issue of stablecoin regulation. Banks strongly oppose stablecoin issuers offering yield-bearing products, while the crypto industry argues that such products are vital for competitiveness.

Bitcoin Price Analysis and Forecast

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin shows a “oversold rebound with weak momentum.” Yesterday’s daily candle closed with a long lower shadow, confirming strong support around $74,500. This level also coincides with the technical low point of the 2025 cycle, providing relatively strong support.

Key support levels include: the core support zone at $74,500–$75,000, which was critical for yesterday’s rebound; secondary support at $72,800, the intraday low today, below which a deeper correction could occur, targeting the $70,000–$72,000 range; ultimate support at the psychological $70,000 mark, below which a near-one-year low could be set, potentially triggering a new wave of selling.

Resistance levels are: short-term resistance at $77,000–$77,500, which is the key barrier for today’s rebound and a lifeline for bulls and bears; medium-term resistance near $79,500–$80,000, requiring a volume breakout to ease short-term weakness; long-term resistance at $82,000, with a downtrend unlikely to reverse before a breakout.

Technical indicators show a four-hour MACD golden cross forming, RSI rebounding from oversold levels (28) to 45, but the hourly RSI approaching 60, signaling caution for short-term overbought corrections. Overall, the trend remains downward, with the four-hour weak decline pattern intact. The current rebound is merely a technical oversold correction, not a trend reversal.

Today’s Trading Strategy Recommendations
In the current market environment, caution is essential. Here are specific strategies for February 4:

Long Position Strategy: Enter a long position with a small size (10%-15%) on a pullback to the $75,000–$75,500 zone, with a stop-loss below $74,500, and target $77,000–$77,500. Take profit immediately upon reaching the target.

Short Position Strategy: Enter a short position with a small size (10%-15%) on a rebound to $77,300–$77,800, with a stop-loss above $78,000, and target $75,000–$74,500. Consider adding slightly if support breaks.

Core Risk Management Tips: Market volatility is high today. All contract trades must set stop-losses, with total position sizes controlled within 30%. High leverage (recommend no more than 5x) is strictly prohibited. If BTC drops below $74,500, close all long positions and stay on the sidelines; avoid blindly bottom-fishing.

For spot investors, dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is recommended—invest a fixed amount regularly to average down the cost of long-term holdings.

Although Bitcoin has fallen to around $75,000, overly bearish market sentiment is unadvisable. As market liquidity improves and policy expectations turn positive, the probability of deep declines diminishes. This could extend the C-wave correction, trading time for price space.

As the market attempts to establish balance at this level, any macroeconomic data releases (such as delayed non-farm reports) or unexpected regulatory developments could serve as catalysts to break the current deadlock. Investors should closely monitor liquidity recovery and whether effective support can be built at this level.

Do you think Bitcoin can hold the key support at $74,500? Is the current market a good bottoming opportunity or just a downtrend continuation? Share your views and trading strategies in the comments.