Wen Chengkai: 3.24 Gold Rushes Higher, Long-Short Clash Faces Dilemma, Latest Price Movement Analysis

On Tuesday during the Asian trading session, international gold showed a “rise then fall” volatile pattern. After rebounding from lows the previous trading day, gold prices came under pressure again, with selling pressure not clearly easing, highlighting the intense battle between bulls and bears. The core contradiction in the current gold market lies in the structural opposition between “rate suppression” and “safe-haven support.” The ongoing struggle between these two factors has led to increased price volatility and unclear direction.

Suppression Logic: Rising Rate Expectations Reduce Gold’s Investment Value
Federal Reserve policy expectations have shifted: influenced by inflation concerns triggered by Middle East conflicts and rising oil prices, the market has largely dismissed the possibility of a rate cut in 2026 and has even begun to bet on rate hikes. Swap market data shows traders are betting on a 20 basis point increase by the end of the year, with the probability of a rate hike rising from 21% to 27%. However, it’s important to note that there are policy disagreements within the Fed; Governor Stephen Mullan explicitly stated there’s no need to consider rate hikes and maintained expectations of four rate cuts this year. Major financial institutions also believe the likelihood of rate hikes this year is limited.

U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar are strengthening: expectations of rate hikes have driven the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield above 4.423%, reaching a high since July 2025. The attractiveness of dollar assets has increased accordingly, while gold, as a non-yielding asset, faces rising opportunity costs in a high-interest-rate environment, with funds continuing to flow from precious metals into U.S. Treasuries and dollar-denominated assets.

This creates a clear transmission chain: “Oil prices rise → inflation heats up → rate hike expectations increase → gold comes under pressure.”

Support Logic: Geopolitical Uncertainty and Safe-Haven Demand Support Prices
The ongoing and fluctuating Middle East conflict remains the key variable influencing gold’s trend, providing a bottom line support. Former U.S. President Trump previously sent positive signals about a possible agreement with Iran, temporarily easing market panic; however, Iran quickly denied this, stating the conflict will continue until full compensation is achieved. Such official discrepancies further increase market uncertainty. Notably, the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy “artery” globally, always faces shipping risks. An escalation could trigger a global energy supply crisis, limiting gold’s downside potential and preventing a sharp, one-sided decline.

Technical Deep Dive: Medium-term Downtrend Unchanged, Focus on Key Zone 4100-4500
Daily Chart: The daily chart shows gold remains in a medium-term downtrend. Previously, prices broke below the 100-day moving average, signaling a weakening trend and establishing a bearish dominance. The 200-day moving average near $4100 is the most important medium-term support, acting as a dividing line between bulls and bears. Although prices have rebounded above this support, upward momentum is weak. Key resistance is at $4530; if prices can hold above this level, further upside toward $4700 is possible. Short-term support is at $4300; if broken, gold may test the $4100 support again. Indicators show MACD below zero with expanding green bars, indicating strengthening bearish momentum. KDJ near 20 suggests short-term oversold conditions, hinting at a technical rebound, but the overall weak trend remains.

4-Hour Chart: Gold shows a clear oscillating and bearish structure. Short-term moving averages are aligned bearish, with multiple rebounds halted at moving average levels, indicating weak bullish attempts. Resistance is concentrated between $4500 and $4540, the core area of short-term battle. Without a clear breakout, the market is likely to continue weak oscillation. Support levels are at $4300 and $4100; breaking these could open further downside. MACD remains negative, indicating ongoing short-term bearishness, but oversold conditions may trigger a technical rebound.

Overall View: Gold is currently in a “medium-term downtrend + short-term oversold rebound” phase: the daily downtrend remains intact, with $4100 as a key support level determining the medium-term trend; the 4-hour chart maintains a oscillating bearish structure with limited rebound potential. The overall outlook suggests that until gold can decisively break above $4500, it will likely continue to fluctuate weakly, oscillating between oversold recovery and bearish continuation.

For traders, key focus should be on the effectiveness of the $4100 support and the breakout of $4500 resistance. In extreme volatility environments, rational position management is essential—avoid blindly chasing rallies or panicking during declines, and be cautious of trend reversals.