March 24 Investment Safety Tip: Trump says the US and Iran may reach an agreement within 5 days; international oil prices drop over 10%

Why is Trump signaling a US-Iran agreement at this time?

Introduction: Caixin on March 24th reports potential risk events in the domestic and international markets. In terms of domestic economic information: 1) Supply and demand conflicts continue to ease, pig prices remain under pressure; 2) Air freight prices surge, Middle Eastern cross-border sellers halt business; Company updates include: 1) The original controlling shareholder of ST Jinggu’s former subsidiary is under investigation for suspected contract fraud; 2) DJI, a drone leader, recently filed a lawsuit against Ying Shi Innovation, involving six patent ownership disputes, with several former DJI core R&D personnel implicated; Key international market focuses include: 1) US and Brent crude oil prices drop over 10%; 2) Trump claims the US and Iran may reach an agreement within five days, but Iran’s senior leadership denies negotiations with the US.

Economic Information

1. Guoyuan Futures research report states that at that time, the market was characterized by ample supply and weak demand, coupled with policy regulation efforts, leading to a short-term weak trend. On the supply side, the number of breeding sows was relatively high previously, and capacity reduction was slow, providing ongoing support for supply. Supply-side pressure continues to grow. The planned slaughter volume for large farms in March increased significantly month-on-month, with slaughtering accelerating. Retail investors, due to low pig prices, rising feed costs, and narrowing price spreads for standard fat pigs, are less willing to hold pigs, leading to faster sales. Meanwhile, market expectations for the future remain pessimistic, with cautious restocking, unable to offset oversupply pressure. Demand is in the traditional off-season, with sluggish catering and consumer spending after the Spring Festival, and slow trade in piglets, with slaughterhouses pushing prices down, further suppressing spot prices. Policy measures have begun to take effect; in March, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting with leading pig enterprises, explicitly reducing the breeding sow inventory to 36.5 million, indicating deeper capacity regulation. However, the oversupply pattern in the short term remains unchanged, and the fundamentals are viewed as bearish until capacity regulation effects become evident. Focus should be on slaughtering pace and the reduction of breeding sows.

2. The ongoing escalation of Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts has significantly impacted the air freight market. With crude oil prices rising sharply, jet fuel costs have surged. Recently, many airlines announced suspensions of Middle Eastern routes and added fuel surcharges, causing air freight prices to climb continuously. It is understood that jet fuel costs typically account for over 30% of total airline operating costs. Facing rising costs, many airlines worldwide have announced increases in fuel surcharges. Additionally, due to the cancellation of many cargo flights on Middle Eastern routes, capacity is tight, pushing air freight prices higher. A sales manager from an import-export company told reporters that due to the substantial increase in transportation costs, logistics on Middle Eastern routes are currently paused, and both they and their Middle Eastern clients are waiting for the conflict to resolve.

3. On March 23, domestic gold prices fell below 1,000 yuan/gram, with multiple brands’ gold jewelry prices continuing to decline. Chow Sang Sang’s pure gold jewelry was quoted at 1,367 yuan/gram, down 22 yuan from the 21st; Lao Miao Gold was at 1,374 yuan/gram, down 23 yuan; Chow Tai Fook at 1,375 yuan/gram, down 22 yuan.

Company Warnings

1. ST Jinggu: The former controlling shareholder of the original subsidiary is under investigation for suspected contract fraud.

2. Ying Shi Innovation: DJI, a drone leader, recently filed a lawsuit against Ying Shi Innovation, involving six patent ownership disputes, with several former DJI core R&D personnel implicated.

3. Huitong Technology: Shareholders plan to reduce holdings by no more than 4.92%.

4. Duopu Le: Shareholder Xiamen Rongyu plans to reduce holdings by no more than 4.9%.

5. *ST Yitong: Shareholder Wang Zhenhong plans to reduce holdings by no more than 2.99%.

6. Zhengdan Shares: Controlling shareholder’s concerted action intends to reduce holdings by no more than 1.00%.

7. GCL System Integration: Perovskite tandem products are still in R&D stage, not yet mass-produced.

8. Junda Shares: The company’s space photovoltaic business remains in technology development and verification, with no revenue or profit yet.

9. Haitian Precision: Net profit in 2025 is expected to decrease by 17.97% year-on-year; plans a 10-for-3 dividend.

10. Satellite Chemical: Net profit in 2025 is expected to decrease by 12.54% year-on-year; plans a 10-for-5 dividend.

11. Wate Gas: Market rumors of price increases for certain gas products; the impact on full-year 2026 performance is expected to be limited.

12. *ST Likuang: Received a delisting decision.

13. Hexin Instruments: Market sentiment is overheated, with irrational speculation.

Overseas Warnings

1. International oil prices plummeted, with NYMEX May light crude futures down $10.10, closing at $88.13 per barrel, a 10.28% drop; Brent May futures fell $12.25, closing at $99.94 per barrel, a 10.92% decline.

2. According to Axios on March 23, Israeli officials say multiple coordinating countries are trying to arrange talks between Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf, US President Trump’s envoy Witkoff, Trump’s son-in-law Kushner, and US Vice President Vance in Islamabad, Pakistan, possibly later this week.

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency and other media reported on March 23 that Iran denies that Parliament Speaker Kalibaf is involved in negotiations with the US.

3. On March 23, US President Trump posted on social media platform “Real Social” that “the US and Iran have had very good and productive talks over the past two days.” Trump said he has instructed a pause on all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, contingent on successful ongoing meetings and discussions.

Trump also told US media that Iran “really wants to reach an agreement,” and the US and Iran “may reach an agreement within five days or even sooner.” He added that the US is “very interested in reaching an agreement with Iran.” Iran denies any negotiations with the US.

Several senior Iranian officials stated on March 23 that Trump’s claim of negotiations is false. They said Iran has no negotiations with the US. Iran attributes Trump’s “withdrawal” from attack plans to Iran’s armed forces’ “decisive, powerful, and credible deterrent” response. Iran emphasizes that its stance on the Strait of Hormuz remains unchanged and will not change.

4. Goldman Sachs states that due to soaring oil and gas prices, the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months has increased to 30%, up 5 percentage points from previous estimates. Factors include energy price shocks, Middle East conflicts tightening US financial conditions, and the waning effect of major tax reforms passed last summer. Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius has raised his baseline unemployment forecast to 4.6%. The bank still expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September and December. It also forecasts US GDP growth below trend in the second half of the year, with annualized growth between 1.25% and 1.75%.

5. The Iran conflict has triggered stagflation fears, causing global bond values to evaporate over $2.5 trillion in March, the largest monthly decline in over three years. Rising oil prices accelerate inflation expectations, leading to bond price drops. Although bond market losses are smaller than the approximately $11.5 trillion loss in global equities, it is surprising since bonds usually rise during geopolitical turmoil. After three consecutive weeks of decline, US bond yields hit multi-month highs, with markets speculating that the Fed may need to hike rates to combat inflation. In Asia, government bond yields in India, Japan, and South Korea have risen. Australia’s 10-year yield reached its highest since 2011, and New Zealand’s government bond yields hit their highest since May 2024.

6. Sources say the UAE has restarted the Habshan natural gas plant, but most LNG capacity remains idle.