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Accurately predict the market entering sideways consolidation and seize the main rising sector opportunities.
Thursday pre-market article clearly stated that there would be no significant rebound. Instead, a sideways consolidation with gradual upward movement was expected. Today’s sharp decline was actually within expectations; I just didn’t expect it to be so harsh. But it’s okay—most of our stocks are mostly green, with only one down 0.5%. Everyone knows that although the gains aren’t huge, given the drop below 4,500, it’s quite good. My account is also slightly profitable.
Brothers and sisters, don’t look for all kinds of reasons for the decline. There is really only one reason: it’s a slow bull market. GJD doesn’t want to move too fast. For example, if GJD has a mission to only rise 800 points a year, how it rises is up to the people below. Anyway, I want a slow bull. The slow bull view has appeared more than once in official media. It’s clear that the big A-shares are replicating the US stock market from 20 years ago. So, any big drop in the big A-shares is an opportunity—it’s a golden pit.
Of course, a slow bull is actually harder to profit from than a bear market, especially for aggressive short-term traders. Chasing hot spots often leads to being buried. For trend traders, it’s also tough because you need to hold on. Looking back at BYD, Buffett made dozens of times profit. Does Buffett keep doing T+0 trading? Does Buffett often BS? Recently, over the past two years, Yi Zhongtian and King Han also saw tenfold gains, but there were big drops, bad news, black swans, and even many small declines of a few centimeters. Who can hold through all that? Only a very few can hold on. Those who buy don’t look at the charts, and they can’t possibly sell all at once.
Many sectors and stocks have been held for years—say, in medicine, real estate, liquor, etc. Inside these sectors, many veteran investors and old funds are still holding. Some have been cut in half or even lost more, yet they still haven’t recovered.
Recently, many of our brothers and sisters experienced stocks like Changfei, Yingweike, Demingli, Yuanjie Technology, which I repeatedly mentioned last year when my market cap was between 15 billion and 30 billion. Who can hold on? Who can grasp? Honestly, I couldn’t hold on all the time. I don’t have that ability. People can’t control themselves. Knowing and doing are easy to say but very hard to do.
Looking back, there are opportunities in the big A-shares. Human greed is infinite. There are stocks that double in the short term, and trend stocks that can multiply many times over longer periods. This fuels everyone’s greed. When the market rises, endless reports attract countless newbies to enter, and they become part of the greed. Those making money want to keep earning; those losing money want to buy more to recover. The more they lose, the more unwilling they are. Even if they close their accounts, they will be attracted again by bullish reports.
Today, I just want to say that, ultimately, you should either find someone who has experienced countless storms and truly has the ability to learn from them—his thinking, his model—and develop your own system. When you profit, you make more; when you lose, you lose less, so you can survive.
Or, if you only chase hot spots without understanding the logic of the stocks you’re buying, and without deeply researching them based on market trends and hot sectors, then if you don’t understand these and blindly chase hot spots, just close your account and never come back. This market isn’t suitable for you. Those short-term traders who profit might be one in ten thousand or even one in a million. They also went through multiple big losses to realize this. These are lessons learned through blood and tears, with real money—something simulated trading can’t replicate.
If you lack this patience and your money isn’t spare cash, I advise you: while your account still has some value, cut your losses and walk away. If you’re holding large-cap growth stocks in tech, don’t worry. Wait a few months or a year until the sector rotates, the market surges, and your target price is reached. Then close your position quickly. This kind of market, which eats people without giving anything back and is against human nature, isn’t suitable for you. In big A-shares, it’s not about who can make more money, but about who can sustain long-term. Especially now, the era of hot money is over, and quantitative trading is shining.
People are greedy, so advice is useless. I’ll just say one point: no matter when or where, keep up with the times and follow the trend!
That’s all I want to say today. Everyone understands the principles and rules; it’s just that greed is too strong. There’s no way around it. So, let’s return to the market.
The conflict in the Middle East will still impact the market, but systemic black swans are less likely to occur. The slow bull market must continue. Any external influence can become a reason for the big A-shares to fall sharply—that’s normal. That’s the slow bull, always allowing retail investors to get on board, exit at any time, cut losses, and occasionally profit. The market operates smoothly, without flaws.
Since the US and Iran have both proposed conditions and our Minister Wang has said both sides are open to negotiations, it’s clear there is room for easing tensions. The meaning is that no matter how intense the conflict, talks can happen until everyone accepts an agreement.
I predict that tomorrow, Friday, the market will likely open lower and test the lows. But this is actually a golden opportunity to buy the dip, then gradually strengthen through consolidation.
Regarding sectors:
Electric Power: I mentioned before the market opened on Thursday that electric power would retreat. I said this on Wednesday too—funds are starting to withdraw. Those who listened had a chance to exit on Wednesday. On Thursday, many electric power stocks surged red, and there was a good chance to take profits. In my view, when the risks outweigh the benefits, I won’t participate. This isn’t investing—it’s gambling, and nine out of ten gamblers lose.
Of course, I remain optimistic about the electric power sector and expect it to rebound repeatedly. But I will wait for a correction and a second wave before re-entering.
Storage: When the market dropped in the afternoon, storage stocks remained steady from the morning, showing continued confidence from inside funds and ongoing support from outside funds. This is a good sign, even though overall sector funds are flowing out, following the market trend.
On the news front, North American storage stocks have fallen for two days, mainly due to Google’s announcement of the AI memory compression algorithm TurboQuant. First, note that the “8 times” improvement is relative to the old 32-bit unquantized models. Currently, mainstream AI inference generally uses 4-bit quantization to optimize efficiency. So, in practice, TurboQuant’s actual improvement over existing solutions will be more moderate than 8 times. Second, large-scale deployment in AI data centers is expected to take several months to about a year, still in early stages from lab to industry. Validation, integration, and optimization are needed before commercial use. Also, TurboQuant only affects inference-stage key-value caches, not the model weights stored in HBM, and is unrelated to training.
It’s worth noting that, despite the short-term decline in US storage chip stocks like Micron, many Wall Street institutions, including Morgan Stanley, believe the market overreacted. They cite “Jevons’ paradox,” suggesting that efficiency improvements lower AI costs and could stimulate greater demand, making the long-term impact on memory hardware neutral to slightly positive. Overall, TurboQuant’s principles and initial effects are validated, but large-scale deployment in AI data centers still requires academic publications, community follow-up, industry integration, and testing.
In the worst case, our big A storage module companies like Demingli and Baiwei mainly produce NAND flash, and TurboQuant doesn’t compress model weights stored in NAND. So, their core business remains safe. The decline in US storage stocks mainly impacts companies like Micron, which focus on server DRAM.
In the long run, this technology could be a positive, as Google’s innovation reduces the cost of running large models. AI that only big companies could afford before is now accessible to small companies, even ordinary phones and cars. This will stimulate massive AI application demand, which requires large amounts of storage chips. Demingli and Baiwei, which produce these storage devices, might see increased demand.
Long-term, this technology lowers the barrier to AI, potentially opening a bigger market for Demingli and Baiwei, which is a good thing.
Since April, we have entered the intensive disclosure period for Q1 2026 and the 2025 annual reports. Storage module companies’ Q1 results will be impressive, so institutional and long-term funds remain optimistic.
Commercial Aerospace: I mentioned before the market open on Thursday that there would be a rebound, mainly benefiting core suppliers like Western Aerospace. Western Aerospace also hit the limit-up as expected, but it didn’t drive the entire aerospace sector. The sector remains quiet, so a rise now is just a point to exit. After the first quarter earnings are announced, you can re-engage. Just wait for the right moment.
Humanoid Robots: Stay tuned for good news. It’s still early, and the sector needs to develop one by one.
Oil, Chemicals, Shipping, Energy: As always, you can’t control politics or predict war outcomes. Stop and avoid getting caught in the crossfire. Don’t do things outside your understanding. Sometimes, you might get rich, but overall, look at your account and see the truth.
Remember: meeting the right people leads to a smooth process and good results!