Wen Chengkai: 3.24 Gold prices surge and plummet, entering a consolidation phase, and an analysis of tomorrow's gold price trend

There are all kinds of rumors flying around in the market, dazzling everyone. Currently, oil and gold prices are controlled by the Strait of Hormuz in Iran and Trump’s words. Yesterday, Trump tweeted that negotiations with Iran are going well, and the global markets rebounded sharply, with gold and U.S. stocks surging and oil prices falling rapidly. Iran stated that there are no negotiations, calling it false news; Trump is just trying to buy time for the strike on March 27. It’s hard to tell what’s true or false, but the market’s volatility shows that the situation remains complex.

Gold is weakening in the medium term, which is already a fact. Whether the bull market continues or not, many still claim it remains unchanged, but even if it does, the medium-term decline is a reality. The era of one-sided profit-taking over the past two years is over, which means medium- and long-term investors need to adjust their trading strategies. Although gold will still rise in the long run, its primary attribute is preservation and appreciation. If the holding period is long enough, holding may not be very meaningful. Therefore, if prices are low enough, a strategy of reducing positions at high points and buying at the bottom can still work. But if prices are high, then it’s better to cut losses at the high points and wait until prices are sufficiently low to buy back. Once the medium-term weakens, medium- and long-term investors need to rebalance their portfolios instead of just waiting.

For gold, the current situation is similar. Many are trapped above $1200, $1100, and $1000. The current trend is alarming—it’s no exaggeration to say that the highest points are unlikely to hold. However, for those above $1100 or near $1100, they can fully recover through margin adjustments. There are two strategies: first, if given a chance to add positions at low levels, buy more and sell together when prices rise; second, if no such opportunity arises, don’t panic sell. If prices go up, reduce losses first and buy back when prices fall again. The market is very volatile and extreme right now, making it difficult to time entries. Waiting for signals often means missing the entry point.

The market rhythm shows that gold is in a medium-term downtrend, but it won’t decline in a straight line; there will be repeated fluctuations. These fluctuations are opportunities for rebalancing and cutting losses. Currently, gold has touched around 4100, and domestic gold prices have reached about 915. I believe the short-term bottom is near; further declines will be limited.

Technical Deep Analysis:: Gold’s Medium-Term Downtrend Remains Unchanged, Focus on the 4100-4500 Key Range

Daily Chart: The daily chart shows that gold is still in a medium-term downtrend. Previously, the price effectively broke below the 100-day moving average, signaling a weakening trend and confirming a bearish dominance. The 200-day moving average near $4100 is the most important support level, acting as a dividing line between bulls and bears. Although the price has rebounded above this support, the upward momentum is weak. The key resistance is at $4530; if the price can break and hold above this level, the rebound could extend toward $4700. Short-term support is at $4300; if this support is broken, gold may test the $4100 support again. From the indicators: MACD is below zero and the green bars are expanding, indicating increasing bearish momentum. The KDJ is in oversold territory near 20, suggesting a short-term technical rebound is possible, but the overall weak trend remains.

4-Hour Chart: Gold shows a clear oscillating and bearish structure. Short-term moving averages are in a bearish alignment, and repeated rebounds are blocked at moving average levels, indicating weak bullish attempts. Resistance is concentrated between $4500 and $4540, which is the core area of short-term battle between bulls and bears. Without a clear breakout, the market is likely to continue weak oscillation. Support levels are at $4300 and $4100; if these are broken, a new downward move could begin. MACD remains in negative territory, showing the short-term downtrend is still ongoing, but oversold conditions could trigger a technical rebound.

Overall View: Gold is currently in a “medium-term downtrend + short-term oversold rebound” phase. The daily trend remains bearish, with $4100 support being the key dividing line for the medium-term outlook. The 4-hour chart shows a sideways and bearish structure, with limited rebound potential. The overall judgment is that until gold can break above the critical resistance at $4500, the main tone remains weak and oscillating. In the extreme volatility environment, it’s important to focus on the effectiveness of the $4100 support and the breakout of $4500 resistance, controlling positions rationally to avoid blindly chasing rallies or panicking during declines, and to guard against trend reversals.