The US prediction platform bets an 82% chance that Musk will become a trillionaire before next year.

MaticHoleFiller · 2026-03-27T04:07:52+00:00

The Kalshi prediction market in the United States recently listed the odds of Elon Musk becoming the world's first trillionaire by 2027 at 82%, reflecting public confidence in his success. Musk's current net worth exceeds $800 billion, primarily derived from SpaceX and Tesla, and going public could help him reach the trillion-dollar mark. In comparison, other billionaires like Zuckerberg and Page have significantly lower net worths than Musk.

MaticHoleFiller

2026-03-27 04:07:52

Abstract generation in progress

The American prediction market trading platform Kalshi recently opened odds on when Elon Musk will become the world’s first trillionaire, with the probability of achieving this goal “before 2027” just reaching 82%.

For those willing to place this bet, they actually only need to pay 82 cents to receive a $1 return (provided they guess correctly). This odds may not seem high, but it indicates that the vast majority of people firmly believe Musk will soon become the world’s first trillionaire.

Musk’s current net worth is estimated to exceed $800 billion, including $500 billion in SpaceX assets (which recently reached a valuation of $1.25 trillion after merging with xAI), as well as $300 billion in Tesla stock and options. This does not include Musk’s $1 trillion stock compensation plan for 2025, as he has not yet actually received these shares.

SpaceX plans to sell shares through an initial public offering this year, which could value the company at $1.8 trillion. This means the company’s market value could increase by about $200 billion, and if Tesla’s stock price remains stable, this would be enough for Musk’s fortune to reach $1 trillion.

In the race for the trillionaire throne, almost no one can compete with Musk. Google co-founder Larry Page has a net worth of about $240 billion.

Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg has a net worth of about $200 billion. Meta recently launched a compensation plan based on the company reaching a market value of $9 trillion, six times its recent level. If this goal is achieved, the stocks currently held by Zuckerberg, valued at about $200 billion, would soar to $1.2 trillion.

Kalshi’s independent market predicts that the probability of Zuckerberg becoming the world’s first trillionaire is less than 1%. In other words, if you guess correctly, you can earn 99 cents for every penny you invest.

Massive information and precise interpretation, all in the Sina Finance APP.

Editor: Yu Jian SF069

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