CITIC Securities: Oil transportation companies' profits are expected to reach new highs by 2026

People’s Finance Network March 27—CITIC Securities’ research report states that from March 20 to 24, the transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz was 2/1/5/7/3 vessels (compared to 127 vessels on February 27). In the past three days, two product oil tankers passed through the strait; some crude oil tankers entered and exited the strait and, within the Persian Gulf, fully shut down their own AIS signals, leading to missing positioning data. This caused the Strait to show an initial signal of “partial recovery of transit capacity.” According to the previous report 《Logistics and Travel Service Industry Oil Transport Cycle Weekly Series—VLCC Concentration Increase Reshaping Freight Rate Mechanism》, the volume of crude oil diverted via the routes through Ennu, Fujairah, and Oman ports is estimated at 6 to 7 million barrels per day. Assuming transit volume recovers to 40% of pre-conflict levels, and considering demand substitution between the Red Sea and the U.S. Gulf, the actual demand gap is expected to continue shrinking to within 10%. Attention should be paid to marginal changes in the transit capacity of the Strait of Hormuz; in the short term, supply chain adjustments that extend shipping distances, along with the potential for U.S. strategic petroleum reserve releases, may drive up TD22 (U.S. Gulf–China) freight rates. Once the Strait’s transit capacity partially recovers, replenishment demand is also likely to become a catalyst for a cycle upward. In 2026, profits for oil shipping companies are expected to reach new highs.