Polymarket "U.S. Department of Homeland Security closure lasting over 60 days" probability rises to 75%, up 37% in 24 hours

Odaily · 2026-03-28T05:00:50+00:00

The U.S. House of Representatives passed a temporary Homeland Security funding bill aimed at ending the government shutdown and sent it to the Senate for consideration. The bill would keep funding until May 22, with a vote of 213 in favor and 203 against. However, it is expected to face difficulty passing in the Senate, potentially prolonging some parts of the government shutdown.

Odaily

2026-03-28 05:00:50

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Odaily Seer Watch monitor reports that the U.S. House of Representatives has passed a temporary Department of Homeland Security appropriations bill aimed at ending the government shutdown, and has sent it to the Senate. Polymarket’s probability for “U.S. Department of Homeland Security shutdown for more than 48 days” rises to 92%, up 31% in 24 hours; “U.S. Department of Homeland Security shutdown for more than 52 days” rises to 54%, up 12% in 24 hours; “U.S. Department of Homeland Security shutdown for more than 60 days” rises to 75%, up 37% in 24 hours. As of now, the trading volume for this event contract has exceeded $1.1 million.

It is understood that the bill provides each agency under the Department of Homeland Security with funding at a level matching the current amount, through May 22—this is the latest attempt to end the partial government shutdown that began on February 14. The bill passed the House with 213 votes in favor and 203 against. Three Democratic lawmakers voted in favor; the rest were Republican lawmakers. Even so, the bill is expected to fail to pass in the Senate and may prolong the deadlock causing part of the government shutdown. Before approving the appropriations agreement in the House version, they rejected the Senate version of the agreement. House Speaker Johnson said Republicans would not participate in any measures to reopen the border or stop immigration enforcement.

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