Long-term Bitcoin investors keep selling off. A brief surge above $90,000 still cannot change the downward trend.

Caixin News reported on December 18 (edited by Malan): Bitcoin is entering a sustained downtrend phase, and one important reason is that long-term holders are still continuously selling the asset.

According to a report from K33 Research, compared with the beginning of 2023, the amount of Bitcoin that has not flowed into exchanges for at least two years has decreased by 1.6 million coins, worth approximately $140 billion. Just in 2025, nearly $300 billion worth of Bitcoin re-entered circulation after being dormant for more than a year.

Meanwhile, the market’s capacity to absorb these re-circulating Bitcoins is gradually weakening. Over the past year, the ETFs that absorbed most of the Bitcoin have now shifted to net outflows, and retail traders’ enthusiasm is also at a low point.

Ergonia research head Chris Newhouse said that the market is experiencing a slow decline characterized by ongoing spot selling but insufficient buy-side liquidity, which creates a gradual drop that is more difficult to reverse than a leveraged, capitulation-style selloff.

Long period of consolidation

On Wednesday, the Bitcoin price briefly rose to $90,000, but traders believe this was due to the closing of large short positions. After that, Bitcoin’s price returned to a downtrend. As of the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading above $86,000.

K33 senior analyst Vetle Lunde said that, unlike previous cycles, this time Bitcoin’s surge to highs was not driven by altcoin trading or protocol incentive mechanisms. Instead, it was driven by abundant liquidity brought about by U.S. ETF investment demand, which allowed early holders to profit at six-figure prices and significantly reduced Bitcoin’s concentration among large investors.

Georgii Verbitskii, founder of crypto investment platform TYMIO, predicts that the Bitcoin price is very likely to consolidate for a longer period, and he does not rule out a drop to $70,000 or even $60,000.

But Lunde believes that, based on observations of historical on-chain capital flows, as the scale of Bitcoin re-entering circulation approaches a certain threshold, long-term holders’ selling may be nearing an end.

He noted that the selling pressure from long-term holders appears to be close to saturation. About 20% of the Bitcoin supply has been reactivated over the past two years. He expects that selling from early investors will decline from 2026 onward.

(Editor: Wenjing)

Keywords:

                                                            Bitcoin