First, let’s talk about the big picture—this bear market hasn’t finished yet.

Based on historical patterns, the true bottom is generally seen about a year and a half before the next halving.
This time, it’s most likely around the end of this year.
And taking into account those on-chain data points (for example, the cost basis is still above 40,000),
it shows that we’re still far from the real bottom—at most, the bear market has only played out halfway.
So, those online takes that call it a bull market after it rises a little—
you can unfollow me now.
Our discussion is on a different level.
Then let’s talk about the medium-term trend.
That is the consolidation phase after our current second wave of downward trend.
Now BTC looks strong,
but this “strength” is mostly fake strength.
In essence, it’s a short squeeze driving the price up—
meaning there are too many people shorting on contracts, so it doesn’t dump hard
#Gate广场四月发帖挑战