Jiang Muyang: Today's gold trend continues with a volatile outlook. Afternoon gold trading suggestions.

On Tuesday, April 7th, the international gold market continued its weak oscillation pattern, with fierce battles between bulls and bears. After the overnight gold price dipped below the key support level of $4,600, it rebounded in a V-shape, and in the morning, it repeatedly fluctuated between $4,615 and $4,670. Currently, bullish and bearish factors are balanced, making it difficult to break the consolidation pattern. On one hand, hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve dominate, suppressing prices; in March, US non-farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in June dropped to 2%. The first rate cut is now expected in September, with the full-year rate cut forecast reduced from three to one. In a high-interest-rate environment, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose to 4.39%, and the US dollar index remained strong at 105.3, increasing the cost of holding gold. Meanwhile, gold ETFs are being reduced, institutional net long positions have decreased, and continuous capital outflows further suppress gold prices. On the other hand, central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risk aversion provide firm support for gold prices. In Q1 2026, global central banks net purchased 215 tons of gold, with China’s central bank increasing its gold reserves for 16 consecutive months to 2,308.5 tons. The annual gold purchase is expected to exceed 800 tons, effectively limiting deep declines in gold prices. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, tensions between the US and Iran, and Trump setting a deadline of 8 PM Eastern Time on April 7 for Iran’s “surrender,” with the threat of targeting Iran’s energy sector if no agreement is reached, have caused risk-averse funds to temporarily flow back into gold, providing short-term support. These multiple factors together create the current complex situation of “both suppression and support from news factors.”

From a multi-cycle technical perspective, gold overall shows a clear oscillation and consolidation pattern, with signals across different timeframes confirming each other and no clear trend guidance. On the daily chart, yesterday’s candle was a doji, indicating a balance of bullish and bearish forces. The MACD indicator is moving sideways with insufficient red momentum, and the RSI shows no signs of overbought or oversold conditions, further confirming the short-term consolidation. Resistance is at the middle band of $4,730, while support is at the 10-day moving average of $4,574. A break below could extend the decline toward the support zone of $4,530–$4,450. On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands are tightening, and after breaking above the middle band, the price has lacked momentum to continue upward. It is currently oscillating within the middle and lower bands, with short-term moving averages turning downward, indicating limited rebound strength and a lack of repair momentum. Focus should be on breaking through the Bollinger middle band at $4,675; a successful break could test yesterday’s high of $4,706, with further upside targeting the upper band at $4,765. The 1-hour chart shows a “alternating yin and yang” short-term tug-of-war, with resistance concentrated around $4,660–$4,670 and support at $4,630–$4,640. The MACD shows frequent crossovers, and trading volume continues to shrink, indicating cautious short-term trading with no clear direction. Overall, multi-cycle resonance highlights the core characteristic of range-bound oscillation.

Trading suggestions:

1. Consider a light long position in the $4,645–$4,650 range, with a stop at $4,635, targeting $4,665–$4,680.

2. Consider a short position under resistance at $4,675, with a stop at $4,690, targeting $4,645; if broken, then target $4,620.