History Is Repeating: Fed Policy Shift Signals a Massive Bitcoin Upswing

Fed ending QT signals a potential setup for another strong Bitcoin surge.

Market conditions mirror 2019 with growing liquidity and rising long-term holder accumulation.

Analysts expect a consolidation phase before a major breakout across crypto.

A strange calm hangs over the crypto market right now. Prices move, but nothing feels dramatic. Traders sense a shift coming, yet many wonder why no clear trend has formed. This silence resembles another moment from the past. In 2019, the Federal Reserve paused quantitative tightening, and the crypto market sat in a similar fog. A few months later, everything exploded. The same setup is forming again, and many analysts see a powerful pattern unfolding.

A Familiar Pause Before a Major Breakout

In 2019, the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking the balance sheet at $3.8 trillion. Liquidity slowly returned, and Bitcoin reacted with a violent surge. Bitcoin climbed from $3,800 to $29,000 in less than two years. The move started during a quiet consolidation period that traders barely noticed at the time. A similar story appears today. The Federal Reserve plans to end quantitative tightening in December 2025.

Liquidity conditions already show a shift, but market confidence remains hesitant. Crypto analyst Dan Gambardello describes this moment as a “forgotten chapter” in the cycle. He believes the current mood mirrors the July to September 2019 stretch. That period featured slow movement, muted sentiment, and steady accumulation from patient investors. Gambardello calls this zone a “middle state” because it sits between fear and euphoria.

Many traders overlook this phase, although history shows that major rallies often begin here. Market risk scores support this connection. Bitcoin carried a score near 42 during the 2019 lull. The current score stands near 43, revealing a similar level of uncertainty. Ethereum’s risk reading jumped from 11 in 2019 to 44 today. Cardano sits near 29. These models help investors avoid emotional mistakes and plan entries with discipline.

A New Environment With Familiar Psychology

Ethereum’s weekly chart reinforces this pattern. In 2019, Ethereum tested the 20-week moving average, bounced, retested, and then recovered months later. Current price action follows that structure. Analysts now watch for a breakout above the 20-week moving average. A failure could send total market capitalization toward $3 trillion before the next move.

The landscape has changed since 2019. Friendly regulation, Ethereum ETFs, stablecoin oversight, and large institutions now shape the market. BlackRock controls hundreds of billions in crypto ETF assets. This presence changes the rhythm of price action and creates calmer periods between major moves. Even with these differences, trader psychology remains consistent. Consolidation breeds frustration.

Many expect immediate excitement and forget that strong trends require a foundation. Gambardello believes the current phase prepares the market for a powerful upswing rather than a breakdown. Patience rewarded long-term investors in 2019. The same approach may prove wise again. History rarely repeats perfectly, but patterns often rhyme. Right now, the rhyme sounds very familiar.