Bitcoin breaking through $73,000 is just a "deep dip rebound"! Analysts warn: the bear market is not over yet

Bitcoin surged on Thursday, briefly breaking through the $73,000 mark, igniting hopes among many investors for a quick “bull return.” However, on-chain data analysis firm CryptoQuant believes this rally should be viewed as a “deep correction rebound,” not the start of a new bull market.

CryptoQuant Research Director Julio Moreno stated in a report released on Thursday: “Although the price has recently rebounded, Bitcoin is still in a bear market pattern. Fundamental and technical indicators both show that the market remains under the shadow of a bear market, so this rally is more accurately seen as a short-term recovery within a bear trend.”

Analyzing the momentum behind this rally, Moreno pointed out that the main driver was a significant improvement in spot demand contraction. Data shows that early 2026, market demand shrank to a “negative 136,000 BTC,” but it has now narrowed to about “negative 25,000 BTC.” This indicates that since early February, selling pressure has been greatly alleviated, favoring consolidation and potential strengthening.

Meanwhile, buying interest from U.S. investors is also recovering. The “Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index,” which measures the strength of institutional and retail buying in the U.S., has surged from deep negative levels in early February to the strongest “positive premium” since October last year.

Additionally, the selling pressure from traders and long-term holders has weakened, providing solid support for this rebound. Moreno pointed out that recent Bitcoin traders’ “unrealized losses” (floating losses) reached their highest level since July 2022. Historically, when losses grow to a certain extent, traders tend to be less willing to close positions, reducing marginal selling pressure.

The pace of long-term holders selling has also slowed significantly, with 30-day sell-off volumes dropping from a high of 940,000 BTC on November 26, 2022, to around 276,000 BTC currently—marking the lowest level since June 2025.

While these factors support the recent rebound, Moreno emphasized that the overall market structure has not undergone a fundamental change. CryptoQuant’s exclusive “Bitcoin Bull Score Index” currently stands at only 10 out of 100, indicating that key indicators signaling a bull market recovery have not yet fully aligned.

Looking ahead, if Bitcoin continues its upward momentum, Moreno warns that it may face two key resistance zones at $79,000 and $90,000.

The first resistance zone ($79,000) coincides with the lower boundary of the “on-chain realized price” for traders, which typically acts as a strong resistance in a bear market. The second zone ($90,000) corresponds to a broader realized price range for traders. After Bitcoin surged from $80,000 to $98,000 in January this year, it was halted and pulled back at this level.