JPMorgan Downgrades S&P 500 Year-End Target to 7200, Warns Oil Price Surge Amplifies Recession Risk

Gate News, March 19 — According to market reports, JPMorgan Chase has lowered its year-end target for the S&P 500 Index (the benchmark for the U.S. stock market) from 7,500 to 7,200 points on March 20. The reason is that rising oil prices, driven by the Iran conflict, have increased the risk of an economic recession. The bank warned that the market may be underestimating the impact of rising energy costs on the economy. While investors are focused on inflation, JPMorgan believes that threats to consumer demand pose a greater risk, which could weaken economic growth. Historically, oil price increases of over 30% often trigger demand contraction and are frequently a precursor to recession. In the short term, the S&P 500 may further decline, especially if it falls below the 200-day moving average, which is a bearish signal. If the sell-off continues, the index could find support around 6,000-6,200 points. Although JPMorgan still expects the economy to recover later this year supported by investments and stimulus measures, ongoing geopolitical risks may limit the extent of the recovery.