Gate News reports that on March 25, according to PolyBeats monitoring, five smart money accounts collectively invested $65,400 on the prediction market Polymarket in the event “Will the US military enter Iran before May?” by buying “Yes.” Currently, the probability of “Yes” for this event is 51%.
Trump is seeking a one-month ceasefire and has submitted a “15-point plan” to Tehran, which has led the market to short-term bets that the Iran conflict may ease after weeks of speculation. Interestingly, after this news broke, the probabilities of both a US-Iran ceasefire before April and US military entry into Iran before April increased on Polymarket.
Today, The Washington Post disclosed that the Pentagon has ordered approximately 2,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, including the division’s first combat brigade and its headquarters units. Currently, about 50,000 US troops are in the Middle East.
Note: Based on their past trading patterns, this trader does not necessarily bet on whether the event will actually happen; they may close positions for profit or loss at certain points after opening.
Account addresses:
0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7
0x38692cead875c0cd862052efbff8f6add7310e3c
0xea7957606f259bcba522a4681494555547a7a9cc
0x60a92c8620846d81f5ea17b0564e0d4b7c545a71
0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3
Total investment: $65,400
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