The probability of "Israel launching strikes against Yemen before March 31" on a certain prediction platform has risen to 60%.

Gate News reports that on March 28, according to monitoring, the probability of “Israel launching strikes against Yemen before March 31, 2026” on a certain prediction platform has significantly increased, currently standing at 60%, compared to an average probability of 18.1% over the past 7 days.

On March 28, 2026, the Houthi armed forces announced a ballistic missile attack on southern Israel. This marks the first time since the recent outbreak of conflict between Iran and the U.S. and Israel that the Houthis have taken military action directly against Israeli territory. The organization claims to have targeted “sensitive military facilities” in southern Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed that a missile launched from the direction of Yemen was detected and stated that it successfully intercepted it, with no reports of casualties at this time.

Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree stated that this move is in response to U.S. and Israeli military actions against targets in Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, and Palestine, emphasizing that their actions will continue until “the aggression stops.” Houthi officials have issued multiple warnings recently, stating that the blockade of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is one of their “viable options.” Analysts are concerned that following restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, if the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is also subjected to substantial blockage, it would cut off crucial oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping routes from the Middle East to Europe and Asia.