Powell appears tonight: Middle East tensions combined with inflation pressures, and the rate cut expectations are once again under scrutiny

BlockBeats message: On March 30, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will attend a public event and take live questions tonight at 22:30 Beijing time. Against the backdrop of continuing heightened tensions in the Middle East and increasing market volatility, this speech is seen as one of the most closely watched macro events of the week.

Market participants generally expect that Powell will likely maintain a cautious stance and avoid providing clear signals about the rate-cut path. With current inflation still above the 2% target, coupled with tariff and geopolitical conflict–driven uncertainty, the probability rises that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the near term, and expectations of “no rate cuts” continue to strengthen.

Meanwhile, the tense relationship between U.S. President Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve remains ongoing. If Powell delivers a more hawkish or watch-and-wait signal, the market expects Trump may again apply pressure, strengthening the policy tug-of-war.

On the fundamentals side, there are signs that the U.S. labor market is weakening: February saw a sharp drop in new jobs. With the economic outlook under pressure, the Federal Reserve finds itself in a dilemma of “high inflation + slowing growth.” Analysts note that, before the Middle East situation becomes clear, monetary policy will likely remain on hold, and market performance will continue to depend heavily on changes in geopolitics and the inflation path.