Bitcoin drops 23.8% in Q1 2026, marking the worst performance since 2018

BlockBeats message, April 1, according to The Block, Bitcoin fell 23.8% in the first quarter of 2026, marking the worst first-quarter performance since 2018. By comparison, Bitcoin fell 50% in the first quarter of 2018. Combined with a 23% drop in the fourth quarter of 2025, Bitcoin has cumulatively declined about 41.6% over the past six months.

Analysts attribute this drop to multiple factors. Bitrue’s Head of Research, Andri Fauzan Adziima, said the decline in the first quarter was driven mainly by outflows from Bitcoin spot ETF funds, alongside persistently elevated inflation, the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, and broad market risk-averse sentiment. In the first quarter, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $496.5 million; outflows of $1.8 billion in the first two months and inflows of $1.32 billion in March partly offset the earlier outflows.

Despite this, analysts believe Bitcoin’s long-term conviction has not wavered. Min Jung, a researcher at Presto Research, said: “There is almost no evidence that Bitcoin’s long-term conviction has undergone a structural shift. Institutional participation and adoption trends remain intact, suggesting that this decline is more cyclical rather than fundamental.” She noted that the condition for a reversal of the trend in the second quarter is that the macro environment, especially the situation in the Middle East, shows greater certainty.

LVRG’s Research Director, Nick Ruck, added: “To reverse the trend in the second quarter, ETF funds need to return to net inflows, clear progress must be made on U.S. crypto-friendly regulations, and monetary conditions must shift toward a more accommodative direction.”