BlockBeats message: On April 2, U.S. President Trump claimed in today’s nationwide address that Iran’s military action has achieved a “swift and decisive victory,” that the core objectives are close to completion, and that he clearly stated that over the next two to three weeks the U.S. will carry out further “heavy strikes” against Iran. However, he did not mention any ceasefire arrangements or a clear path to wrapping up, triggering sharp volatility in the market.
In the energy market, Trump threatened to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure if an agreement is not reached, and also reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz should be guaranteed for safe passage by other countries, significantly lifting expectations of supply disruptions. As a result, WTI crude oil broke above $103 per barrel, Brent crude rose above $102 per barrel, and intraday gains of both exceeded 4%. The energy risk premium quickly expanded.
Financial markets also faced simultaneous pressure: U.S. stock index futures fell; S&P 500 index futures once dropped by about 0.5%, and Asia-Pacific equities turned lower. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to about 4.35%, while Japan’s 30-year Treasury yields also increased in step, reflecting the market’s repricing of inflation and policy uncertainty.
Precious metals saw a notable pullback: spot gold fell below $4,700 per ounce, with an intraday decline of more than 2%. Silver’s decline widened to more than 3%, showing that amid rate hikes and disruptions to short-term risk appetite, some safe-haven capital pulled out on a temporary basis.
Market analysis believes that Trump’s remarks waver between contradictory signals of “near victory” and “continued strikes.” He neither provided a clear conflict endgame plan nor eased concerns about passage through the strait; instead, he reinforced expectations of energy supply risk and upward global inflation, leading to a sharply diverging trend between commodities and risk assets.
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