U.S. employment alert sounds: job vacancies plunge + a wave of layoffs hits, and the unemployment rate may enter a new upward cycle

Gate News message, in 2026, the U.S. job market has issued the most severe warning signals since the pandemic. According to The Kobeissi Letter data, in February, government job vacancies fell by 510,000 to 701k, reaching the second-lowest level since December 2020, down more than 520k from the 2022 peak, and has already returned to the pre-pandemic range.

Breaking it down, federal government job vacancies fell to 89k, nearing the low point of the past decade. At the same time, the hiring rate dropped to 1.4%, the lowest level in nearly six years, indicating that hiring demand in the public sector has clearly contracted and labor absorption capacity has weakened.

The private sector is also under pressure, with large-scale layoffs continuing to occur. Oracle cut about 30k jobs at the end of March, Amazon eliminated 16k positions at the beginning of the year, and Block also laid off more than 4,000 employees. A wave of layoffs combined with slower hiring has further thrown the supply-demand structure of the job market out of balance.

Leading indicators are also releasing negative signals. A survey by The Conference Board shows that only 27.3% of consumers believe there are “plenty of jobs,” far below the level of about 55% in 2022; 21.5% of respondents think “finding a job is difficult,” significantly higher than the historical average. The gap between the two has narrowed to 5.8 percentage points, the lowest level since the pandemic.

Historical experience suggests that this indicator often leads changes in the unemployment rate, and similar readings have appeared multiple times before economic recessions. With multiple data points weakening at the same time, it suggests that the U.S. job market may be entering a new round of downside cycle.

Markets are closely watching the upcoming March jobs report to determine whether the current weakness is only a temporary fluctuation or a deeper structural adjustment. Against a backdrop of rising macro uncertainty, changes in employment will also affect the pricing logic of risk assets, including Bitcoin.