VanEck bullish on Bitcoin: Derivatives market signals "contrarian bullish indicator"

BlockBeats message, April 4, VanEck’s Head of Digital Asset Research Matthew Sigel said that the current Bitcoin derivatives market has already issued a clear “contrarian long signal,” and the company’s overall stance has turned more optimistic.

Sigel pointed out that the protective demand for bearish options (puts) in the current market has risen to around the 99th percentile of historical levels. The premium investors are paying for hedging has increased significantly, which in history typically indicates the market is nearing an interim bottom—an archetypal contrarian long signal.

He also said that earlier holders who were holding BTC saw a concentrated profit-taking period between 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q1 (3–5 years ago), but recently selling pressure has noticeably eased, helping the market stabilize.

On strategy, VanEck’s NODE fund tends to outperform BTC itself with lower volatility by allocating to assets related to Bitcoin mining companies and AI infrastructure. At the same time, out of a cautious attitude toward leverage risk, the team keeps underweight positions in highly leveraged-related names such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy.

In addition, Sigel believes that the valuation re-rating space created by mining companies’ transition toward AI data centers is expanding, and that with the current mining stock prices having already pulled back by about 40% from their prior highs, it may offer new allocation opportunities.

On the risk front, he warned that if the U.S. stock market’s “Tech Seven” fails to deliver returns on the massive AI capital expenditures, it could create systemic pressure on the S&P 500, which in turn could affect the performance of risk assets, including the crypto market.