Next week's macro outlook: The Iran conflict will continue to dominate market sentiment, and the Federal Reserve meeting minutes are worth paying attention to.

BlockBeats message, April 4. Although tensions between the U.S. and Iran have cooled somewhat over the weekend, during the weekend the United States continued to search for a crew member aboard an F-15E fighter jet shot down by Iran on Friday. Meanwhile, Tehran continued to carry out attacks on Gulf Arab countries and Israel. It was reported that on the same day, a second U.S. combat aircraft crashed in the Persian Gulf. As a result, next week both sides will still maintain a tense, sword-crossing standoff, and multiple parties involved appear to have fully expected that the U.S. ground forces would enter Iranian territory.

Apart from the Iran war, the most important macro development next week is the Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Analysts say the meeting minutes may confirm the hawkish shift reflected in the dot plot. The specific event times are as follows:

Monday 22:00, U.S. March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI;

Tuesday 15:50-16:30, France/Germany/Eurozone/UK March Services PMI final;

Tuesday 23:00, U.S. March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations;

Wednesday 00:35, remarks by 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee on monetary policy;

Wednesday 17:00, Eurozone February PPI m/m, Eurozone February retail sales m/m;

Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve releases the monetary policy meeting minutes;

Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims, U.S. February core PCE price index y/y, U.S. February personal spending m/m, the final U.S. Q4 real GDP annualized quarterly figure, the final U.S. Q4 real personal consumption expenditures quarterly figure, the final U.S. Q4 core PCE price index annualized y/y, U.S. February core PCE price index m/m;

Friday 20:30, U.S. March CPI y/y not seasonally adjusted/core CPI y/y not seasonally adjusted, U.S. March CPI m/m/core CPI m/m seasonally adjusted;

Friday 22:00, initial U.S. April one-year inflation rate expectations, initial University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April, and U.S. February factory orders m/m.

For the 3月 CPI data that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release on Friday, this will be the first inflation data set that can reflect the impact of the war. According to FactSet’s consensus expectations, based on the overall data, the CPI year-over-year increase is expected to jump from 2.4% to 3.1%.