BlockBeats message, April 6, according to PolyBeats monitoring, on Polymarket, market expectations for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire have been steadily rising since yesterday. By the end of this month, the probability of a ceasefire has increased from 18% to 28%; by the end of May, it has risen from 34% to 42%; and by the end of June, a ceasefire has already become a likely event, with a 53% chance.
The rise in ceasefire expectations is mainly driven by Trump’s setting of a final deadline for negotiations with Iran. The negotiation time floor set by Trump is “8:00 p.m. Tuesday Eastern Time” (8:00 a.m. Wednesday Beijing time). In addition, multiple related reports have boosted ceasefire expectations. Insiders said the U.S., Iran, and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms of a potential 45-day ceasefire agreement, which may ultimately lead to a permanent end to the war. Iran and Oman also held talks on Saturday to discuss various options to ensure navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
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