Opinion: Multiple practical obstacles hinder the US-Iran temporary ceasefire

BlockBeats message: On April 6, Li Zixin, an assistant researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, said that, based on the current situation, there is a possibility that the U.S.-Iran side could reach a temporary ceasefire, but it is definitely fraught with difficulties.

Even if one were reached, it would be more likely a stopgap measure rather than a reliable path toward a permanent ceasefire. First, the two sides’ core demands are actually hard to reconcile. Iran views control over the Strait of Hormuz and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium with 60% abundance as the central strategic bargaining chips, and it has already made clear that it will not give up these fundamental interests for the sake of a short-term ceasefire.

Meanwhile, the United States demands that Iran reopen the strait and handle nuclear materials—essentially requiring Iran to make unilateral concessions, and setting aside Iran’s core interests by taking short-term actions in exchange for meeting conditions tied to Iran’s core interests. This touches Iran’s bottom line for sovereignty and security. Second, the foundation of trust for negotiations is extremely weak. Although Iran acknowledges that it exchanged relevant information with the U.S. through friendly countries, it denies engaging in direct talks.

At the same time, U.S. President Trump is, on the one hand, releasing negotiation signals, and, on the other hand, continuing to issue “ultimatums” for military strikes. This pattern of fighting while negotiating is more like a strategy of maximum pressure and testing the other side’s space to compromise, rather than genuinely seeking reconciliation. (Jinshi)